luckadjusted

Week 17 2024 · December 29, 2024

Titans at Jaguars, Week 17 2024: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Titans 20–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:50 left): the Titans were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 8 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Tennessee Titans 13
Jacksonville Jaguars 20

December 29, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Titans −1

Luck index +39 Jaguars lucky · −39 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 4, Jaguars win 6.

  1. 1 TEN 26 JAX 9
  2. 2 TEN 23 JAX 14
  3. 3 TEN 19 JAX 14
  4. 4 TEN 20 JAX 17
  5. 5 TEN 14 JAX 16
  6. 6 TEN 13 JAX 17
  7. 7 TEN 13 JAX 20
  8. 8 TEN 3 JAX 13
  9. 9 TEN 3 JAX 17
  10. 10 TEN 10 JAX 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 39% of them, Jaguars 61%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+3.8%
Titans by 9–1612.0%
Titans by 1–821.0%
Level after regulation2.9%
Jaguars by 1–833.6%
Jaguars by 9–1616.1%
Jaguars by 17+10.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.0 points to the Titans: the final margin was Jaguars by 7, without the luck Jaguars by 15. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Little, 48 yds made · 71% expected
  • C. Little, 44 yds made · 78% expected
  • M. Wright, 39 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Wright, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 5 for 34 yards, Jaguars 7 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Chad Muma), 6 yards +2% TEN +0.6 pts
Q1 6:20 Intentional Grounding on the Jaguars (Mac Jones), 13 yards +3% TEN +1.0 pts
Q2 12:21 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Nick Vannett), 10 yards +6% JAX +1.0 pts
Q2 8:08 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 0:52 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Cedric Gray), 10 yards +1% JAX +0.9 pts
Q3 11:29 Offensive Offside on the Titans (Mason Rudolph), 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% JAX +1.8 pts
Q3 5:59 False Start on the Jaguars, 6 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.9 pts
Q3 0:12 False Start on the Jaguars (Mac Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.6 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Josiah Deguara), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% TEN +2.1 pts
Q4 2:34 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.4 pts
Q4 0:37 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.4 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:50 C. Little made 48-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 5 of 6 from 45+ before +5% JAX JAX: Punt
2 Q1 4:39 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% JAX JAX: Punt
3 Q2 12:21 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Nick Vannett), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2238 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +6% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:50 The Titans were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% JAX TEN: Punt
5 Q3 10:25 The Titans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown
6 Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Josiah Deguara), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1751 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +6% TEN TEN: Field goal
7 Q4 7:11 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:14 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB), out (IR), replaced by m.jones · 4.6 pts
  • Evan Engram (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Walker Little (JAX T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cooper Hodges (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Dillon Radunz (TEN T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tony Pollard (TEN RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jack Gibbens (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Folk (TEN K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 2% · Jaguars 98%

Final margin
Jaguars by 7
Luck in points
8.0 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 15.0
Replay with same day's form
Titans 39% · Jaguars 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2024 games · Titans · Jaguars

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