luckadjusted

2024 season · final

Tennessee Titans, 2024: game by game

The Titans went 3–14 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.4 wins. Luck cost them 2.4: the 3rd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.

Every game

How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Bears L 17–24 78% −78
Week 2 vs Jets L 17–24 60% −60
Week 3 vs Packers L 14–30 14% −14
Week 4 @ Dolphins W 31–12 48% +52
Week 6 vs Colts L 17–20 5% −5
Week 7 @ Bills L 10–34 1% −1
Week 8 @ Lions L 14–52 36% −36
Week 9 vs Patriots W 20–17 95% +5
Week 10 @ Chargers L 17–27 16% −16
Week 11 vs Vikings L 13–23 16% −16
Week 12 @ Texans W 32–27 50% +50
Week 13 @ Commanders L 19–42 0% 0
Week 14 vs Jaguars L 6–10 28% −28
Week 15 vs Bengals L 27–37 20% −20
Week 16 @ Colts L 30–38 12% −12
Week 17 @ Jaguars L 13–20 39% −39
Week 18 vs Texans L 14–23 24% −24

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Titans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Injuries+0.73+24.9
Kicks+0.51+10.8
Drops+0.34+11.6
Fumble bounces+0.17+1.6
Rest+0.03+1.2
3rd & 4th downs−0.68−3.6
Judgment calls−0.78−23.4