Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024
Patriots at Titans, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the Patriots 20–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 20 points of win probability to the Patriots.
An off day for the Patriots: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 3:13 left): Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Titans. The biggest single swing (QOT, 2:17 left): the Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked.
Final (OT)
 New England Patriots | 17 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Titans about even · −5 Patriots
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Patriots win 1, Titans win 9.
- 1 NE 18 TEN 13
- 2 NE 24 TEN 26
- 3 NE 17 TEN 22
- 4 NE 10 TEN 19
- 5 NE 6 TEN 17
- 6 NE 14 TEN 27
- 7 NE 28 TEN 44
- 8 NE 9 TEN 29
- 9 NE 3 TEN 27
- 10 NE 17 TEN 47
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Patriots
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
34 points apart for the Patriots: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.00 | better by 0.09 |
| Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.08 | worse by 0.00 |
| Titans offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.03 | better by 0.06 |
| Titans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.04 | worse by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Patriots win 5% of them, Titans 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Patriots by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Patriots by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| Patriots by 1–8 | 3.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 8.5% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 21.6% |
| Titans by 17+ | 64.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Slye, 56 yds missed · 58% expected
- J. Slye, 52 yds made · 64% expected
- N. Folk, 21 yds made · 100% expected
- N. Folk, 25 yds made · 100% expected
Penalties: Patriots 8 for 58 yards, Titans 10 for 67 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NE +0.5 pts |
| Q1 4:57 | Delay of Game on the Titans, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% NE +0.4 pts |
| Q1 4:08 | False Start on the Patriots (Kendrick Bourne), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.4 pts |
| Q2 14:03 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Patriots, 8 yards | +2% TEN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 9:02 | Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Ja'Lynn Polk), 10 yards | +2% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 3:13 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Titans, 10 yards | +3% NE +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:41 | Defensive Holding on the Patriots, 5 yards | 0% TEN +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:28 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards | +2% NE +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:17 | Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NE +0.2 pts |
| Q3 13:42 | Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards | +7% TEN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 13:18 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans (Arden Key), 5 yards | +3% NE +0.5 pts |
| Q3 12:57 | Illegal Shift on the Patriots (Ja'Lynn Polk), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% TEN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 12:02 | False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:07 | Defensive Holding on the Titans (Jarvis Brownlee), 5 yards | +3% NE +0.8 pts |
| Q3 8:12 | Face Mask on the Titans (Roger McCreary), 3 yards | +4% NE +2.1 pts |
| Q3 2:48 | Offensive Holding on the Titans (Josh Whyle), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +12% NE +2.8 pts |
| Q4 13:47 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards | +5% NE +0.9 pts |
| Q4 3:13 | Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +16% TEN +2.7 pts |
Patriots penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:51 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedThe Titans were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +20% NE | TEN: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 4:32 | The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +12% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 3:13 | The game turned hereOffensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +16% TEN | TEN: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 0:04 | The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +20% NE | NE: Touchdown |
| 5 | QOT 10:00 | The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +15% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 6 | QOT 7:23 | The Titans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +22% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 7 | QOT 3:23 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedThe Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +19% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 8 | QOT 2:17 | The Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +29% TEN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out · 0.7 pts
- Dillon Radunz (TEN T), out · 0.5 pts
- Chidobe Awuzie (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Kyle Dugger (NE FS), out · 0.5 pts
- David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- K.J. Osborn (NE WR), out · 0.3 pts
- Ja'Whaun Bentley (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Patriots 48% · Titans 52%
- Final margin
- Titans by 3
- Luck in points
- 2.1 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Patriots 5% · Titans 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · 
Patriots · 
Titans
More from Week 9 2024
- Texans at Jets NYJ 21–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- Cowboys at Falcons ATL 27–21 · replay 67% for the winner
- Broncos at Ravens BAL 41–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Chargers at Browns LAC 27–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Raiders at Bengals CIN 41–24 · replay 98% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 30–27 · replay 83% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers CAR 23–22 · replay 23% for the winner
- Commanders at Giants WAS 27–22 · replay 93% for the winner
- Bears at Cardinals ARI 29–9 · replay 90% for the winner
- Jaguars at Eagles PHI 28–23 · replay 60% for the winner
- Lions at Packers DET 24–14 · replay 76% for the winner
- Rams at Seahawks LA 26–20 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colts at Vikings MIN 21–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Chiefs KC 30–24 · replay 53% for the winner