luckadjusted

Week 9 2024 · November 4, 2024

Buccaneers at Chiefs, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Buccaneers 30–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 75% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:19 left): the Chiefs got away with an interception-worthy throw, worth 43 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final (OT)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
Kansas City Chiefs 30

November 4, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −9

Luck index +47 Chiefs lucky · −47 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 5, Chiefs win 5.

  1. 1 TB 30 KC 9
  2. 2 TB 30 KC 17
  3. 3 TB 27 KC 18
  4. 4 TB 31 KC 27
  5. 5 TB 29 KC 27
  6. 6 TB 24 KC 26
  7. 7 TB 31 KC 35
  8. 8 TB 20 KC 28
  9. 9 TB 17 KC 30
  10. 10 TB 10 KC 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 47% of them, Chiefs 53%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+8.6%
Buccaneers by 9–1613.6%
Buccaneers by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation6.4%
Chiefs by 1–825.1%
Chiefs by 9–1614.1%
Chiefs by 17+9.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.7 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Chiefs by 6, without the luck Chiefs by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 47 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 6 for 50 yards, Chiefs 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:53 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Trent McDuffie), 5 yards +4% TB +1.9 pts
Q2 15:00 Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.6 pts
Q2 0:46 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +4% KC +0.9 pts
Q3 13:30 Horse Collar Tackle on the Chiefs (Joshua Williams), 15 yards +7% TB +1.6 pts
Q3 8:31 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% KC +0.9 pts
Q3 7:48 Face Mask on the Buccaneers, 15 yards, wiping out the play +6% KC +2.3 pts
Q4 7:41 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (C.J. Brewer), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.4 pts
Q4 2:49 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +2% TB +0.9 pts
Q4 2:16 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% KC +1.4 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:06 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% TB KC: Punt
2 Q2 8:18 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:17 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +14% KC KC: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:46 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedOffensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +10% KC TB: Punt
5 Q4 14:21 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +16% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:20 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +11% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:19 The Chiefs got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +43% KC KC: Punt
8 QOT 4:15 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +8% KC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashee Rice (KC WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jaylen Watson (KC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Michael Danna (KC DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Isiah Pacheco (KC RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Deckers (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 42% · Chiefs 58%

Final margin
Chiefs by 6
Luck in points
5.7 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 47% · Chiefs 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Buccaneers · Chiefs

More from Week 9 2024