luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · October 31, 2024–November 4

Week 9 2024: who deserved to win

3 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Panthers beat the Saints 23–22 in a game they win 23% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 9 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 1 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Panthers 23–22 vs Saints 30% 23% Lucky

Week 9 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Panthers W 23–22 vs Saints 23% +77
2 Rams W 26–20 @ Seahawks 38% +62
3 Jets W 21–13 vs Texans 48% +52
4 Chiefs W 30–24 vs Buccaneers 53% +47
5 Eagles W 28–23 vs Jaguars 60% +40
6 Falcons W 27–21 vs Cowboys 67% +33
7 Lions W 24–14 @ Packers 76% +24
8 Bills W 30–27 vs Dolphins 83% +17
9 Vikings W 21–13 vs Colts 90% +10
10 Cardinals W 29–9 vs Bears 90% +10
11 Ravens W 41–10 vs Broncos 92% +8
12 Chargers W 27–10 @ Browns 92% +8
13 Commanders W 27–22 @ Giants 93% +7
14 Titans W 20–17 vs Patriots 95% +5
15 Bengals W 41–24 vs Raiders 98% +2
16 Raiders L 24–41 @ Bengals 2% −2
17 Patriots L 17–20 @ Titans 5% −5
18 Giants L 22–27 vs Commanders 7% −7
19 Browns L 10–27 vs Chargers 8% −8
20 Broncos L 10–41 @ Ravens 8% −8
21 Bears L 9–29 @ Cardinals 10% −10
22 Colts L 13–21 @ Vikings 10% −10
23 Dolphins L 27–30 @ Bills 17% −17
24 Packers L 14–24 vs Lions 24% −24
25 Cowboys L 21–27 @ Falcons 33% −33
26 Jaguars L 23–28 @ Eagles 40% −40
27 Buccaneers L 24–30 @ Chiefs 47% −47
28 Texans L 13–21 @ Jets 52% −52
29 Seahawks L 20–26 vs Rams 62% −62
30 Saints L 22–23 @ Panthers 77% −77