2024 season · final
Indianapolis Colts, 2024: game by game
The Colts went 8–9 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.9 wins. Luck cost them 0.9: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–5.
Every game
How often the Colts win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Texans | L 27–29 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 2 | @ Packers | L 10–16 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 3 | vs Bears | W 21–16 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 4 | vs Steelers | W 27–24 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 5 | @ Jaguars | L 34–37 | 74% | −74 |
| Week 6 | @ Titans | W 20–17 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 7 | vs Dolphins | W 16–10 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 8 | @ Texans | L 20–23 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 9 | @ Vikings | L 13–21 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 10 | vs Bills | L 20–30 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 11 | @ Jets | W 28–27 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 12 | vs Lions | L 6–24 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 13 | @ Patriots | W 25–24 | 34% | +66 |
| Week 15 | @ Broncos | L 13–31 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 16 | vs Titans | W 38–30 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 17 | @ Giants | L 33–45 | 69% | −69 |
| Week 18 | vs Jaguars | W 26–23 | 88% | +12 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Colts’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.62 | −2.4 |
| Judgment calls | +0.32 | +9.8 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.19 | −3.2 |
| Injuries | +0.19 | +7.1 |
| Rest | −0.09 | −3.3 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.29 | −1.6 |
| Drops | −0.89 | −24.3 |