luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Colts at Titans, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Titans 20–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Titans: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Titans were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 10:20 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (L'Jarius Sneed), 33 yards, worth 19 points of win probability to the Colts. The biggest single swing (Q2, 2:30 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Amani Hooker), 14 yards, wiping out the play.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 20
Tennessee Titans 17

October 13, 2024 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −2.5

Luck index +5 Colts about even · −5 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 9, Titans win 1.

  1. 1 IND 33 TEN 3
  2. 2 IND 37 TEN 13
  3. 3 IND 30 TEN 10
  4. 4 IND 27 TEN 10
  5. 5 IND 16 TEN 3
  6. 6 IND 10 TEN 0
  7. 7 IND 27 TEN 20
  8. 8 IND 15 TEN 10
  9. 9 IND 19 TEN 17
  10. 10 IND 10 TEN 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Titans

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.

54 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Colts offenseEPA per play gained −0.01 +0.08 worse by 0.09
Colts defenseEPA per play allowed +0.01 +0.10 better by 0.09
Titans offenseEPA per play gained +0.01 +0.03 worse by 0.02
Titans defenseEPA per play allowed −0.01 +0.04 better by 0.05

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 95% of them, Titans 5%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+54.3%
Colts by 9–1623.8%
Colts by 1–815.2%
Level after regulation1.5%
Titans by 1–83.9%
Titans by 9–161.0%
Titans by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.4 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 3, without the luck Titans by 2.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • M. Gay, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 22 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 5 for 40 yards, Titans 11 for 113 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:17 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.5 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.6 pts
Q2 14:56 Illegal Contact on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 5 yards +5% TEN +1.9 pts
Q2 11:09 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Grant Stuard), 10 yards +2% TEN +0.9 pts
Q2 6:09 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +3% IND +1.2 pts
Q2 4:45 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.2 pts
Q2 2:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Amani Hooker), 14 yards, wiping out the play +19% IND +5.2 pts
Q2 2:00 Face Mask on the Colts, 15 yards +4% TEN +1.4 pts
Q2 1:11 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Jarvis Brownlee), 5 yards +6% IND +1.6 pts
Q3 14:14 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Taven Bryan), 5 yards +1% TEN +0.7 pts
Q3 13:11 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (Laiatu Latu), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.7 pts
Q3 8:34 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.8 pts
Q3 8:16 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +3% IND +1.2 pts
Q3 4:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Kenneth Murray), 6 yards +5% IND +1.9 pts
Q3 4:46 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Sebastian Joseph-Day), 15 yards +4% IND +2.1 pts
Q4 10:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (L'Jarius Sneed), 33 yards +19% IND +2.0 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:50 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +13% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q2 2:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Amani Hooker), 14 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 4334 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +19% IND IND: Field goal
3 Q3 10:42 The Titans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +10% TEN TEN: Touchdown
4 Q3 6:26 The Titans converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 15% expected +15% TEN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:20 The Colts converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +9% IND IND: Field goal
6 Q4 10:20 The game turned hereDefensive Pass Interference on the Titans (L'Jarius Sneed), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 34 flags in 4539 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +19% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q4 7:32 The Colts converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +13% IND IND: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:59 The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% IND TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chidobe Awuzie (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Samson Ebukam (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Julius Brents (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Will Fries (IND G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 26% · Titans 74%

Final margin
Colts by 3
Luck in points
5.4 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Colts 95% · Titans 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Colts · Titans

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