luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · October 10, 2024–October 14

Week 6 2024: who deserved to win

1 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bengals beat the Giants 17–7 in a game they win 45% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 6 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Colts 20–17 @ Titans 43% 95% Deserved
Bears 35–16 vs Jaguars 46% 93% Deserved

Week 6 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bengals W 17–7 @ Giants 45% +55
2 Chargers W 23–16 @ Broncos 52% +48
3 Bills W 23–20 @ Jets 56% +44
4 Steelers W 32–13 @ Raiders 62% +38
5 Ravens W 30–23 vs Commanders 75% +25
6 Packers W 34–13 vs Cardinals 91% +9
7 Buccaneers W 51–27 @ Saints 92% +8
8 Bears W 35–16 vs Jaguars 93% +7
9 Colts W 20–17 @ Titans 95% +5
10 Eagles W 20–16 vs Browns 96% +4
11 Falcons W 38–20 @ Panthers 97% +3
12 49ers W 36–24 @ Seahawks 98% +2
13 Texans W 41–21 @ Patriots 99% +1
14 Lions W 47–9 @ Cowboys 99% +1
15 Cowboys L 9–47 vs Lions 1% −1
16 Patriots L 21–41 vs Texans 1% −1
17 Seahawks L 24–36 vs 49ers 2% −2
18 Panthers L 20–38 vs Falcons 3% −3
19 Browns L 16–20 @ Eagles 4% −4
20 Titans L 17–20 vs Colts 5% −5
21 Jaguars L 16–35 @ Bears 7% −7
22 Saints L 27–51 vs Buccaneers 8% −8
23 Cardinals L 13–34 @ Packers 9% −9
24 Commanders L 23–30 @ Ravens 25% −25
25 Raiders L 13–32 vs Steelers 38% −38
26 Jets L 20–23 vs Bills 44% −44
27 Broncos L 16–23 vs Chargers 48% −48
28 Giants L 7–17 vs Bengals 55% −55