luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · October 3, 2024–October 7

Week 5 2024: who deserved to win

4 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Giants beat the Seahawks 29–20 in a game they win 19% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 5 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Cardinals 24–23 @ 49ers 30% 58% Coin flip
Giants 29–20 @ Seahawks 30% 19% Lucky
Cowboys 20–17 @ Steelers 43% 84% Deserved

Week 5 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Giants W 29–20 @ Seahawks 19% +81
2 Jaguars W 37–34 vs Colts 26% +74
3 Broncos W 34–18 vs Raiders 30% +70
4 Dolphins W 15–10 @ Patriots 32% +68
5 Ravens W 41–38 @ Bengals 51% +49
6 Cardinals W 24–23 @ 49ers 58% +42
7 Packers W 24–19 @ Rams 67% +33
8 Falcons W 36–30 vs Buccaneers 69% +31
9 Chiefs W 26–13 vs Saints 71% +29
10 Texans W 23–20 vs Bills 83% +17
11 Cowboys W 20–17 @ Steelers 84% +16
12 Vikings W 23–17 vs Jets 90% +10
13 Bears W 36–10 vs Panthers 96% +4
14 Commanders W 34–13 vs Browns 99% +1
15 Browns L 13–34 @ Commanders 1% −1
16 Panthers L 10–36 @ Bears 4% −4
17 Jets L 17–23 @ Vikings 10% −10
18 Steelers L 17–20 vs Cowboys 16% −16
19 Bills L 20–23 @ Texans 17% −17
20 Saints L 13–26 @ Chiefs 29% −29
21 Buccaneers L 30–36 @ Falcons 31% −31
22 Rams L 19–24 vs Packers 33% −33
23 49ers L 23–24 vs Cardinals 42% −42
24 Bengals L 38–41 vs Ravens 49% −49
25 Patriots L 10–15 vs Dolphins 68% −68
26 Raiders L 18–34 @ Broncos 70% −70
27 Colts L 34–37 @ Jaguars 74% −74
28 Seahawks L 20–29 vs Giants 81% −81