luckadjusted

Week 5 2024 · October 3, 2024

Buccaneers at Falcons, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Buccaneers 36–30 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:01 left): Y. Koo made 52-yard field goal, worth 22 points of win probability to the Falcons. The biggest single swing (Q4, 13:25 left): the Falcons converted 4th & 4.

Final (OT)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30
Atlanta Falcons 36

October 3, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −2.5

Luck index +31 Falcons lucky · −31 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 3, Falcons win 7.

  1. 1 TB 27 ATL 9
  2. 2 TB 30 ATL 21
  3. 3 TB 20 ATL 17
  4. 4 TB 35 ATL 37
  5. 5 TB 27 ATL 32
  6. 6 TB 26 ATL 34
  7. 7 TB 27 ATL 40
  8. 8 TB 10 ATL 27
  9. 9 TB 10 ATL 32
  10. 10 TB 7 ATL 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 31% of them, Falcons 69%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+5.0%
Buccaneers by 9–168.3%
Buccaneers by 1–815.6%
Level after regulation3.4%
Falcons by 1–823.6%
Falcons by 9–1620.5%
Falcons by 17+23.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.7 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Falcons by 6, without the luck Falcons by 11.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 41 yds missed · 89% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 53 yds made · 71% expected
  • Y. Koo, 54 yds made · 73% expected
  • Y. Koo, 48 yds made · 83% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 53 yds made · 72% expected
  • Y. Koo, 54 yds blocked · 73% expected
  • Y. Koo, 52 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 5 for 47 yards, Falcons 8 for 74 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:39 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Josh Hayes), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +0.2 pts
Q2 14:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (K.J. Britt), 15 yards +6% ATL +2.0 pts
Q2 14:50 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% TB +1.5 pts
Q2 13:02 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 10 yards +4% TB +1.1 pts
Q2 7:39 Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Kirk Cousins), 10 yards +3% TB +0.9 pts
Q3 13:52 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% ATL +1.5 pts
Q3 10:59 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.5 pts
Q3 8:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (KhaDarel Hodge), 10 yards +4% TB +1.5 pts
Q3 3:57 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (JD Bertrand), 14 yards +5% TB +1.5 pts
Q4 9:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Lavonte David), 7 yards +7% ATL +1.9 pts
Q4 8:15 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +6% TB +0.8 pts
Q4 1:39 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% ATL +1.4 pts
Q4 0:01 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% TB +0.2 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 6% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:04 The Falcons converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +13% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q4 13:25 The Falcons converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +27% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q4 10:28 C. McLaughlin made 53-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 43 of 58 from 45+ before +12% TB TB: Turnover
4 Q4 6:42 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedD. Mooney dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 104 catchable balls before this +15% TB ATL: Missed field goal
5 Q4 6:37 Y. Koo had a 54-yard field goal blockedKicks · 73% expected for him, 50 of 61 from 45+ before +19% TB ATL: Turnover
6 Q4 1:52 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% TB ATL: Field goal
7 Q4 0:01 The game turned hereY. Koo made 52-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 50 of 62 from 45+ beforeDelay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +22% ATL ATL: Touchdown
8 QOT 9:14 The Falcons converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +20% ATL ATL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DeMarcco Hellams (ATL SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Antoine Winfield Jr. (TB FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jake Camarda (TB P), out · 0.3 pts
  • Evan Deckers (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 5% · Falcons 95%

Final margin
Falcons by 6
Luck in points
5.7 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 11.7
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 31% · Falcons 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Buccaneers · Falcons

More from Week 5 2024