luckadjusted

Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024

Cardinals at 49ers, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the 49ers 24–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Cardinals win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:16 left): the 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 27 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 24
San Francisco 49ers 23

October 6, 2024 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −7

Luck index +42 Cardinals lucky · −42 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 6, 49ers win 4.

  1. 1 ARI 37 SF 13
  2. 2 ARI 28 SF 13
  3. 3 ARI 13 SF 0
  4. 4 ARI 24 SF 15
  5. 5 ARI 29 SF 24
  6. 6 ARI 16 SF 13
  7. 7 ARI 28 SF 31
  8. 8 ARI 10 SF 17
  9. 9 ARI 10 SF 23
  10. 10 ARI 23 SF 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 58% of them, 49ers 42%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+14.1%
Cardinals by 9–1616.5%
Cardinals by 1–826.8%
Level after regulation3.1%
49ers by 1–819.8%
49ers by 9–1612.9%
49ers by 17+6.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.8 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Cardinals by 1, without the luck 49ers by 2.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Moody, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Ryland, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Moody, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Ryland, 45 yds blocked · 77% expected
  • M. Wishnowsky, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Ryland, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. Ryland, 35 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 1 for 5 yards, 49ers 4 for 21 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 10:39 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards +6% ARI +1.8 pts
Q2 6:59 Encroachment on the 49ers (Jordan Elliott), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.4 pts
Q3 11:10 False Start on the Cardinals (Michael Wilson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.6 pts
Q3 4:19 False Start on the 49ers (Jauan Jennings), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.5 pts
Q4 11:30 Roughing the Passer on the 49ers (Sam Okuayinonu), 1 yard 0% ARI +0.1 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 93%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:59 The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% SF SF: Touchdown
2 Q1 0:57 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +10% ARI ARI: Field goal
3 Q2 10:11 The 49ers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% SF SF: Field goal
4 Q2 5:09 C. Ryland had a 45-yard field goal blockedKicks · 77% expected for him, 5 of 11 from 45+ before +24% SF ARI: Turnover
5 Q2 3:32 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% ARI ARI: Turnover
6 Q4 6:20 The 49ers fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% ARI SF: Turnover
7 Q4 2:49 The Cardinals converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +19% ARI ARI: Field goal
8 Q4 1:16 The 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +27% ARI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian McCaffrey (SF RB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Javon Hargrave (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dre Greenlaw (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jon Feliciano (SF C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ambry Thomas (SF CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Justin Jones (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Prater (ARI K), out · 0.3 pts
  • BJ Ojulari (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 35% · 49ers 65%

Final margin
Cardinals by 1
Luck in points
3.8 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 2.8
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 58% · 49ers 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Cardinals · 49ers

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