2024 season · final

San Francisco 49ers, 2024: game by game

The 49ers went 6–11 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.5 wins. Luck cost them 4.5: the unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.

Every game

How often the 49ers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Jets	W 32–19	98%	+2
Week 2	@ Vikings	L 17–23	53%	−53
Week 3	@ Rams	L 24–27	70%	−70
Week 4	vs Patriots	W 30–13	99%	+1
Week 5	vs Cardinals	L 23–24	42%	−42
Week 6	@ Seahawks	W 36–24	98%	+2
Week 7	vs Chiefs	L 18–28	38%	−38
Week 8	vs Cowboys	W 30–24	95%	+5
Week 10	@ Buccaneers	W 23–20	84%	+16
Week 11	vs Seahawks	L 17–20	65%	−65
Week 12	@ Packers	L 10–38	5%	−5
Week 13	@ Bills	L 10–35	5%	−5
Week 14	vs Bears	W 38–13	99%	+1
Week 15	vs Rams	L 6–12	40%	−40
Week 16	@ Dolphins	L 17–29	73%	−73
Week 17	vs Lions	L 34–40	62%	−62
Week 18	@ Cardinals	L 24–47	19%	−19

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +2 vs NYJ

Wk 2 −53 @ MIN

Wk 3 −70 @ LA

Wk 4 +1 vs NE

Wk 5 −42 vs ARI

Wk 6 +2 @ SEA

Wk 7 −38 vs KC

Wk 8 +5 vs DAL

Wk 10 +16 @ TB

Wk 11 −65 vs SEA

Wk 12 −5 @ GB

Wk 13 −5 @ BUF

Wk 14 +1 vs CHI

Wk 15 −40 vs LA

Wk 16 −73 @ MIA

Wk 17 −62 vs DET

Wk 18 −19 @ ARI

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the 49ers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Rest	−0.11	−4.5
3rd & 4th downs	−0.19	−6.7
Fumble bounces	−0.26	−4.7
Kicks	−0.56	−27.5
Judgment calls	−1.00	−22.1
Injuries	−1.04	−39.4