luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 10, 2024

49ers at Seahawks, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Seahawks 36–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10.

An off day for the Seahawks: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%. The numbers

Before kickoff the 49ers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:46 left): Illegal Shift on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 36
Seattle Seahawks 24

October 10, 2024 · Lumen Field · Closing line: 49ers −3.5

Luck index +2 49ers about even · −2 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 10, Seahawks win 0.

  1. 1 SF 51 SEA 10
  2. 2 SF 47 SEA 14
  3. 3 SF 38 SEA 10
  4. 4 SF 44 SEA 20
  5. 5 SF 41 SEA 20
  6. 6 SF 28 SEA 10
  7. 7 SF 30 SEA 16
  8. 8 SF 19 SEA 7
  9. 9 SF 26 SEA 17
  10. 10 SF 31 SEA 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Seahawks

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%.

31 points apart for the Seahawks: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
49ers offenseEPA per play gained +0.27 +0.20 better by 0.07
49ers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.02 +0.08 better by 0.06
Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained +0.02 +0.09 worse by 0.07
Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed +0.27 +0.09 worse by 0.18

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 98% of them, Seahawks 2%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+79.4%
49ers by 9–1612.8%
49ers by 1–85.5%
Level after regulation0.8%
Seahawks by 1–81.2%
Seahawks by 9–160.4%
Seahawks by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was 49ers by 12, without the luck 49ers by 15.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Wright, 41 yds made · 85% expected
  • M. Wright, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Myers, 20 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: 49ers 5 for 34 yards, Seahawks 9 for 69 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:19 False Start on the 49ers (Jalen Graham), 4 yards · pre-snap +4% SEA +0.5 pts
Q2 11:10 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% SF +1.6 pts
Q2 10:31 Defensive Offside on the 49ers (Nick Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.7 pts
Q2 4:27 Face Mask on the Seahawks (Dre'Mont Jones), 13 yards +1% SF +1.2 pts
Q2 0:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Isaac Yiadom), 10 yards +4% SEA +1.4 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Formation on the Seahawks (Artie Burns), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +0.4 pts
Q3 8:25 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% SEA +2.6 pts
Q4 12:38 Illegal Shift on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% SEA +1.2 pts
Q4 11:04 Face Mask on the Seahawks (Leonard Williams), 15 yards +3% SF +0.8 pts
Q4 8:11 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (AJ Barner), 10 yards +4% SF +1.4 pts
Q4 6:20 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Nehemiah Pritchett), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% SF 0.0 pts
Q4 4:46 Illegal Shift on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +16% SF +6.2 pts
Q4 3:42 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SF +0.8 pts
Q4 0:45 False Start on the Seahawks (Jake Bobo), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +0.4 pts

49ers penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:33 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% SEA SEA: Turnover
2 Q1 11:33 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% SF SEA: Punt
3 Q1 8:00 The 49ers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +5% SF SF: Field goal
4 Q3 8:25 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q3 5:50 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% SEA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q4 12:38 Illegal Shift on the 49ers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% SEA SEA: Turnover
7 Q4 8:11 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (AJ Barner), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 170 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +4% SF SF: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:46 Illegal Shift on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +16% SF SF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Riq Woolen (SEA CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (SF RB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Charvarius Ward (SF CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Javon Hargrave (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Talanoa Hufanga (SF SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dre Greenlaw (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jake Moody (SF K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jon Feliciano (SF C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ambry Thomas (SF CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 99% · Seahawks 1%

Final margin
49ers by 12
Luck in points
3.3 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 15.3
Replay with same day's form
49ers 98% · Seahawks 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · 49ers · Seahawks

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