luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Browns at Eagles, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Browns 20–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:25 left): J. Elliott had a 57-yard field goal blocked, worth 29 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 16
Philadelphia Eagles 20

October 13, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −8

Luck index +4 Eagles about even · −4 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Eagles win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 6 PHI 9
  2. 2 CLE 20 PHI 26
  3. 3 CLE 8 PHI 17
  4. 4 CLE 9 PHI 20
  5. 5 CLE 13 PHI 27
  6. 6 CLE 14 PHI 30
  7. 7 CLE 3 PHI 20
  8. 8 CLE 7 PHI 27
  9. 9 CLE 2 PHI 27
  10. 10 CLE 0 PHI 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 4% of them, Eagles 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.1%
Browns by 9–160.5%
Browns by 1–83.3%
Level after regulation0.5%
Eagles by 1–88.9%
Eagles by 9–1623.3%
Eagles by 17+63.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.3 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 4, without the luck Browns by 3.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 49 yds made · 73% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Elliott, 57 yds blocked · 59% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 52 yds missed · 67% expected
  • J. Elliott, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 7 for 55 yards, Eagles 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:28 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.6 pts
Q2 12:16 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Oren Burks), 10 yards +3% CLE +1.5 pts
Q2 6:15 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Zack Baun), 15 yards +2% CLE +1.4 pts
Q2 5:25 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Geoff Swaim), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% PHI +3.0 pts
Q2 1:53 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.4 pts
Q3 4:27 False Start on the Eagles (Grant Calcaterra), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.8 pts
Q3 3:27 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.8 pts
Q3 1:24 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.4 pts
Q4 11:00 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +17% PHI +2.5 pts
Q4 6:43 Face Mask on the Browns (Amari Cooper), 15 yards +9% PHI +1.3 pts
Q4 4:00 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% PHI +0.8 pts
Q4 3:57 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.1 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 7:24 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q2 5:25 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Geoff Swaim), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2984 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +10% PHI PHI: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 4:18 The Browns converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +10% CLE CLE: Field goal
4 Q2 0:25 J. Elliott had a 57-yard field goal blockedKicks · 59% expected for him, 29 of 41 from 45+ before +29% CLE PHI: End of half
5 Q3 1:04 The Browns converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% CLE CLE: Field goal
6 Q4 11:00 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +17% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 9:53 D. Hopkins made 49-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 35 of 49 from 45+ before +10% CLE CLE: Field goal
8 Q4 5:16 The Browns converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% CLE CLE: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • James Bradberry (PHI CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Grant Delpit (CLE SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Juan Thornhill (CLE FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (CLE C), out · 0.4 pts
  • James Hudson (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Hicks (CLE LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • David Bell (CLE WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Charley Hughlett (CLE LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 50% · Eagles 50%

Final margin
Eagles by 4
Luck in points
7.3 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
Browns 4% · Eagles 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Browns · Eagles

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