luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Steelers at Raiders, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Raiders 32–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:19 left): Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Matthew Butler), 12 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 32
Las Vegas Raiders 13

October 13, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −3.5

Luck index +38 Steelers lucky · −38 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 6, Raiders win 4.

  1. 1 PIT 26 LV 3
  2. 2 PIT 23 LV 7
  3. 3 PIT 31 LV 20
  4. 4 PIT 21 LV 12
  5. 5 PIT 17 LV 12
  6. 6 PIT 26 LV 24
  7. 7 PIT 15 LV 17
  8. 8 PIT 21 LV 26
  9. 9 PIT 24 LV 34
  10. 10 PIT 6 LV 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 62% of them, Raiders 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+14.9%
Steelers by 9–1618.0%
Steelers by 1–826.1%
Level after regulation2.8%
Raiders by 1–818.9%
Raiders by 9–1612.8%
Raiders by 17+6.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.4 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 19, without the luck Steelers by 5.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 52 yds made · 77% expected
  • C. Boswell, 49 yds made · 82% expected
  • C. Boswell, 37 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Boswell, 36 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 7 for 50 yards, Raiders 4 for 42 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:24 False Start on the Steelers (Connor Heyward), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.6 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% LV +1.7 pts
Q2 9:43 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Darnell Washington), 10 yards +5% LV +1.8 pts
Q2 7:55 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +5% LV +1.1 pts
Q2 5:18 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.3 pts
Q2 1:19 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Matthew Butler), 12 yards, wiping out the play +19% PIT +5.0 pts
Q3 12:57 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% PIT +2.5 pts
Q3 9:31 Illegal Forward Pass on the Steelers (Justin Fields), 5 yards +2% LV +0.5 pts
Q3 5:29 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (K'Lavon Chaisson), 15 yards +3% PIT +1.2 pts
Q3 0:01 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% PIT +2.4 pts
Q4 9:29 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.8 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:02 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedG. Pickens dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 166 catchable balls before this +7% LV PIT: Punt
2 Q2 8:38 The Steelers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% PIT PIT: Punt
3 Q2 2:40 The Raiders fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% PIT LV: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 1:19 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Matthew Butler), 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 82 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +19% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:40 The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:57 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% PIT PIT: Field goal
7 Q3 11:07 Blocked punt by the SteelersSpecial teams +13% PIT PIT: Field goal
8 Q4 14:30 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% PIT LV: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Davante Adams (LV WR), out · 1.4 pts
  • Jakobi Meyers (LV WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Christian Wilkins (LV DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Michael Mayer (LV TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Epps (LV SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Malcolm Koonce (LV DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Zamir White (LV RB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • James Daniels (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • MyCole Pruitt (PIT TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 82% · Raiders 18%

Final margin
Steelers by 19
Luck in points
13.4 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 5.6
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 62% · Raiders 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Steelers · Raiders

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