luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Cardinals at Packers, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Cardinals 34–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 66% favorites.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 13
Green Bay Packers 34

October 13, 2024 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −5.5

Luck index +9 Packers about even · −9 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 1, Packers win 9.

  1. 1 ARI 30 GB 23
  2. 2 ARI 13 GB 16
  3. 3 ARI 21 GB 27
  4. 4 ARI 27 GB 36
  5. 5 ARI 37 GB 48
  6. 6 ARI 20 GB 34
  7. 7 ARI 16 GB 33
  8. 8 ARI 24 GB 45
  9. 9 ARI 14 GB 40
  10. 10 ARI 10 GB 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 9% of them, Packers 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.6%
Cardinals by 9–161.8%
Cardinals by 1–85.6%
Level after regulation2.1%
Packers by 1–816.4%
Packers by 9–1621.6%
Packers by 17+51.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.2 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 21, without the luck Packers by 16.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Narveson, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. Ryland, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Ryland, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. Narveson, 44 yds missed · 82% expected
  • B. Narveson, 41 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 13 for 100 yards, Packers 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (L.J. Collier), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.5 pts
Q1 11:40 Face Mask on the Cardinals (Joey Blount), 15 yards +2% GB +0.9 pts
Q1 10:43 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Zaven Collins), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.6 pts
Q1 1:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% ARI +2.0 pts
Q1 0:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Zaven Collins), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.6 pts
Q2 3:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Jaire Alexander), 15 yards +1% ARI +2.5 pts
Q2 3:17 Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 5 yards 0% ARI +1.0 pts
Q2 2:16 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 10 yards 0% GB +0.8 pts
Q2 1:04 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% GB +1.3 pts
Q2 0:12 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.5 pts
Q3 11:21 Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.7 pts
Q3 10:26 Illegal Formation on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +1.0 pts
Q3 7:47 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Sean Murphy-Bunting), 5 yards +1% GB +0.8 pts
Q3 5:17 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Sean Murphy-Bunting), 5 yards +1% GB +0.9 pts
Q4 14:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Krys Barnes), 15 yards 0% GB +2.7 pts
Q4 11:33 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.8 pts
Q4 8:23 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Lukas Van Ness), 5 yards 0% ARI +0.3 pts
Q4 6:12 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Zach Pascal), 10 yards 0% GB +0.8 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:56 The Packers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% GB GB: Punt
2 Q1 13:10 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% ARI GB: Punt
3 Q1 9:00 The Packers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% ARI ARI: Punt
5 Q2 8:44 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +3% GB GB: Field goal
6 Q2 1:08 The Packers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% ARI GB: End of half
7 Q3 9:12 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +3% GB ARI: Field goal
8 Q3 3:54 The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% GB GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Devonte Wyatt (GB DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Jones (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Prater (ARI K), out · 0.3 pts
  • BJ Ojulari (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 1% · Packers 99%

Final margin
Packers by 21
Luck in points
4.2 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 16.8
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 9% · Packers 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Cardinals · Packers

More from Week 6 2024