luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Commanders at Ravens, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Commanders 30–23 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:58 left): the Ravens were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 10 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 23
Baltimore Ravens 30

October 13, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −6.5

Luck index +25 Ravens lucky · −25 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 3, Ravens win 7.

  1. 1 WAS 28 BAL 13
  2. 2 WAS 38 BAL 31
  3. 3 WAS 27 BAL 24
  4. 4 WAS 27 BAL 28
  5. 5 WAS 31 BAL 34
  6. 6 WAS 17 BAL 24
  7. 7 WAS 20 BAL 31
  8. 8 WAS 21 BAL 35
  9. 9 WAS 27 BAL 46
  10. 10 WAS 10 BAL 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 25% of them, Ravens 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+2.6%
Commanders by 9–166.5%
Commanders by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation3.8%
Ravens by 1–828.5%
Ravens by 9–1621.6%
Ravens by 17+22.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 7, without the luck Ravens by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 42 yds made · 83% expected
  • J. Tucker, 45 yds made · 82% expected
  • A. Seibert, 52 yds blocked · 62% expected
  • A. Seibert, 55 yds made · 57% expected
  • J. Tucker, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Tucker, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • A. Seibert, 49 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 6 for 46 yards, Ravens 3 for 33 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 8:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 11 yards +8% BAL +2.0 pts
Q2 4:25 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +1.0 pts
Q2 3:26 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.6 pts
Q2 3:08 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Noah Igbinoghene), 5 yards +2% BAL +0.6 pts
Q2 2:20 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.4 pts
Q3 3:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 10 yards +2% BAL +1.4 pts
Q4 12:53 Illegal Formation on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +1.1 pts
Q4 4:32 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% BAL +1.7 pts
Q4 3:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 23 yards +9% WAS +3.3 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:58 The Ravens were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% WAS BAL: Field goal
2 Q1 11:47 The Commanders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +7% WAS WAS: Field goal
3 Q1 1:02 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% WAS BAL: Punt
4 Q2 14:17 The Commanders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% WAS WAS: Punt
5 Q2 8:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 2453 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:57 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:05 A. Seibert had a 52-yard field goal blockedKicks · 62% expected for him, 12 of 22 from 45+ before +7% BAL WAS: Field goal
8 Q4 3:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 23 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 179 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% WAS WAS: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Emmanuel Forbes (WAS CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 46% · Ravens 54%

Final margin
Ravens by 7
Luck in points
6.3 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 25% · Ravens 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Commanders · Ravens

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