luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Falcons at Panthers, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Panthers 38–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:24 left): Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Matt Judon), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 38
Carolina Panthers 20

October 13, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −6

Luck index +3 Falcons about even · −3 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 10, Panthers win 0.

  1. 1 ATL 45 CAR 10
  2. 2 ATL 45 CAR 16
  3. 3 ATL 47 CAR 23
  4. 4 ATL 31 CAR 10
  5. 5 ATL 21 CAR 3
  6. 6 ATL 34 CAR 20
  7. 7 ATL 36 CAR 25
  8. 8 ATL 33 CAR 24
  9. 9 ATL 31 CAR 26
  10. 10 ATL 20 CAR 18

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 97% of them, Panthers 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+72.8%
Falcons by 9–1616.1%
Falcons by 1–87.5%
Level after regulation0.7%
Panthers by 1–82.4%
Panthers by 9–160.5%
Panthers by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.0 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 18, without the luck Falcons by 10. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • Y. Koo, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • Y. Koo, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • Y. Koo, 35 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 5 for 45 yards, Panthers 10 for 74 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Formation on the Falcons (Kevin King), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.5 pts
Q1 14:22 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.7 pts
Q1 11:21 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.7 pts
Q1 8:24 Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Matt Judon), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +14% CAR +2.5 pts
Q1 6:57 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.6 pts
Q1 3:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 14 yards +4% ATL +2.0 pts
Q1 0:38 Low Block on the Falcons (Kevin King), 15 yards +5% CAR +1.5 pts
Q2 6:10 Low Block on the Panthers (Chau Smith-Wade), 1 yard 0% ATL +0.1 pts
Q2 5:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 10 yards +4% CAR +1.1 pts
Q2 3:10 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +2% ATL +0.9 pts
Q2 0:33 Illegal Shift on the Panthers (Diontae Johnson), 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% ATL +0.7 pts
Q3 6:33 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +3% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 2:06 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +2% CAR +0.9 pts
Q3 0:07 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Thomas Incoom), 10 yards +2% ATL +0.9 pts
Q4 5:28 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards 0% ATL +1.0 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:24 Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Matt Judon), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 21 flags in 3893 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +14% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:07 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:43 The Falcons converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:33 The Falcons converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Falcons got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% ATL ATL: Turnover
5 Q2 12:17 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% CAR ATL: Touchdown
6 Q3 4:55 E. Pineiro made 40-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +7% CAR CAR: Turnover
7 Q3 3:59 The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% ATL ATL: Field goal
8 Q4 10:53 The Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% ATL CAR: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Moton (CAR T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Adam Thielen (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Derrick Brown (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josey Jewell (CAR LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (CAR LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tommy Tremble (CAR TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DeMarcco Hellams (ATL SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 100% · Panthers 0%

Final margin
Falcons by 18
Luck in points
8.0 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 10.0
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 97% · Panthers 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Falcons · Panthers

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