luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Texans at Patriots, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Patriots 41–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 68% favorites.

Final

Houston Texans 41
New England Patriots 21

October 13, 2024 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Texans −6.5

Luck index +1 Texans about even · −1 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 10, Patriots win 0.

  1. 1 HOU 52 NE 9
  2. 2 HOU 47 NE 13
  3. 3 HOU 33 NE 3
  4. 4 HOU 29 NE 3
  5. 5 HOU 36 NE 13
  6. 6 HOU 29 NE 9
  7. 7 HOU 34 NE 19
  8. 8 HOU 33 NE 21
  9. 9 HOU 39 NE 31
  10. 10 HOU 23 NE 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 99% of them, Patriots 1%. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+82.7%
Texans by 9–1610.6%
Texans by 1–85.0%
Level after regulation0.4%
Patriots by 1–80.9%
Patriots by 9–160.4%
Patriots by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 20, without the luck Texans by 18.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 40 yds missed · 88% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 46 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 4 for 38 yards, Patriots 9 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Formation on the Patriots (Sione Takitaki), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q1 10:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Marte Mapu), 4 yards +5% HOU +1.9 pts
Q1 3:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Marcus Jones), 6 yards +4% HOU +1.9 pts
Q1 0:14 Illegal Shift on the Texans (Stefon Diggs), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% NE +1.0 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Offside on the Patriots (Deatrich Wise Jr.), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% HOU 0.0 pts
Q2 13:53 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Patriots, 5 yards +1% HOU +0.5 pts
Q2 13:12 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.5 pts
Q2 5:37 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Marcellas Dial), 10 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q2 0:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Eric Murray), 13 yards +1% NE +0.5 pts
Q3 13:31 Taunting on the Texans (Stefon Diggs), 15 yards +2% NE +1.2 pts
Q3 4:13 False Start on the Patriots (Drake Maye), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.8 pts
Q4 11:24 Illegal Use of Hands on the Texans (Mario Edwards), 5 yards 0% NE +0.4 pts
Q4 11:24 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.6 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:31 The Texans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Marte Mapu), 4 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 514 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +5% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:46 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Marcus Jones), 6 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 825 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +4% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:53 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedThe Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% HOU NE: Punt
6 Q2 14:33 K. Fairbairn missed 40-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +5% NE HOU: Turnover
7 Q2 2:38 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% HOU HOU: Punt
8 Q3 14:18 The Patriots fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% HOU NE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ja'Whaun Bentley (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • K.J. Osborn (NE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Layden Robinson (NE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kamari Lassiter (HOU CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Harris (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kurt Hinish (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 100% · Patriots 0%

Final margin
Texans by 20
Luck in points
1.8 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 18.2
Replay with same day's form
Texans 99% · Patriots 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Texans · Patriots

More from Week 6 2024