Week 6 2024 · October 14, 2024
Bills at Jets, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?
The Bills beat the Jets 23–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bills win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Bills.
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The game turned on a luck play (Q3, 1:05 left): Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Bills. The biggest single swing (Q4, 2:01 left): the Jets were intercepted on a well-placed throw.
Final
 Buffalo Bills | 23 |
|---|---|
 New York Jets | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Bills lucky · −44 Jets
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bills win 6, Jets win 4.
- 1 BUF 33 NYJ 10
- 2 BUF 29 NYJ 14
- 3 BUF 21 NYJ 10
- 4 BUF 16 NYJ 9
- 5 BUF 28 NYJ 24
- 6 BUF 26 NYJ 24
- 7 BUF 10 NYJ 12
- 8 BUF 22 NYJ 29
- 9 BUF 9 NYJ 19
- 10 BUF 24 NYJ 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bills win 56% of them, Jets 44%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bills by 17+ | 9.9% |
| Bills by 9–16 | 16.1% |
| Bills by 1–8 | 23.4% |
| Level after regulation | 7.1% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 22.4% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 13.1% |
| Jets by 17+ | 8.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Zuerlein, 34 yds made · 92% expected
- T. Bass, 47 yds missed · 72% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 22 yds made · 98% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 32 yds missed · 94% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 43 yds missed · 79% expected
- T. Bass, 22 yds made · 98% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Bills 11 for 94 yards, Jets 11 for 110 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:54 | Illegal Formation on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYJ +0.8 pts |
| Q2 12:14 | Offensive Holding on the Bills (Kaiir Elam), 10 yards | +3% NYJ +0.9 pts |
| Q2 11:02 | False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% NYJ +0.5 pts |
| Q2 7:50 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Quincy Williams), 10 yards | +1% BUF +0.5 pts |
| Q2 4:07 | False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% BUF +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:14 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 23 yards | +4% BUF +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:50 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Tony Adams), 8 yards | 0% BUF +0.5 pts |
| Q3 12:44 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Dawson Knox), 10 yards | +2% NYJ +1.1 pts |
| Q3 9:38 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (A.J. Epenesa), 15 yards | +6% NYJ +1.9 pts |
| Q3 6:13 | False Start on the Bills (Mack Hollins), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYJ +0.4 pts |
| Q3 3:05 | Low Block on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 13 yards | +5% NYJ +1.9 pts |
| Q3 1:05 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +16% BUF +3.4 pts |
| Q3 0:55 | False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYJ +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:55 | Illegal Formation on the Bills, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% NYJ +1.1 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bills, 11 yards | +3% NYJ +0.9 pts |
| Q4 13:23 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards | +3% BUF +0.9 pts |
| Q4 11:16 | Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BUF +0.7 pts |
| Q4 5:18 | Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 10 yards | +7% BUF +1.2 pts |
| Q4 3:46 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 15 yards | +15% BUF +1.2 pts |
| Q4 3:46 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 4 yards · pre-snap | +4% BUF +0.2 pts |
| Q4 2:56 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Christian Benford), 10 yards | +9% NYJ +1.1 pts |
| Q4 2:12 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards | +11% BUF +0.9 pts |
Bills penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 6:58 | The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +9% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 7:51 | The Jets converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +16% NYJ | NYJ: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 1:05 | The game turned hereOffensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +16% BUF | BUF: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 12:04 | The Jets converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +16% NYJ | NYJ: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 3:46 | T. Bass made 22-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for himUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1888 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 4 yardsPre-snap flags · 8 flags in 1888 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 | +23% BUF | BUF: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 2:56 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Christian Benford), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1609 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +9% NYJ | NYJ: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 2:12 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +11% BUF | BUF: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 2:01 | The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedThe Jets were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +66% BUF | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Carter Warren (NYJ T), out · 0.4 pts
- Michael Carter II (NYJ CB), out · 0.2 pts
- Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out · 0.5 pts
- James Cook (BUF RB), out · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bills 25% · Jets 75%
- Final margin
- Bills by 3
- Luck in points
- 8.3 for the Bills
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 5.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Bills 56% · Jets 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · 
Bills · 
Jets
More from Week 6 2024
- 49ers at Seahawks SF 36–24 · replay 98% for the winner
- Jaguars vs Bears CHI 35–16 · replay 93% for the winner
- Cardinals at Packers GB 34–13 · replay 91% for the winner
- Browns at Eagles PHI 20–16 · replay 96% for the winner
- Texans at Patriots HOU 41–21 · replay 99% for the winner
- Colts at Titans IND 20–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints TB 51–27 · replay 92% for the winner
- Commanders at Ravens BAL 30–23 · replay 75% for the winner
- Chargers at Broncos LAC 23–16 · replay 52% for the winner
- Steelers at Raiders PIT 32–13 · replay 62% for the winner
- Falcons at Panthers ATL 38–20 · replay 97% for the winner
- Lions at Cowboys DET 47–9 · replay 99% for the winner
- Bengals at Giants CIN 17–7 · replay 45% for the winner