2024 season · final

New York Jets, 2024: game by game

The Jets went 5–12 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.4 wins. Luck cost them 2.4: the 4th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–7.

Every game

How often the Jets win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ 49ers	L 19–32	2%	−2
Week 2	@ Titans	W 24–17	40%	+60
Week 3	vs Patriots	W 24–3	88%	+12
Week 4	vs Broncos	L 9–10	48%	−48
Week 5	@ Vikings	L 17–23	10%	−10
Week 6	vs Bills	L 20–23	44%	−44
Week 7	@ Steelers	L 15–37	47%	−47
Week 8	@ Patriots	L 22–25	91%	−91
Week 9	vs Texans	W 21–13	48%	+52
Week 10	@ Cardinals	L 6–31	10%	−10
Week 11	vs Colts	L 27–28	46%	−46
Week 13	vs Seahawks	L 21–26	23%	−23
Week 14	@ Dolphins	L 26–32	47%	−47
Week 15	@ Jaguars	W 32–25	74%	+26
Week 16	vs Rams	L 9–19	16%	−16
Week 17	@ Bills	L 14–40	9%	−9
Week 18	vs Dolphins	W 32–20	99%	+1

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −2 @ SF

Wk 2 +60 @ TEN

Wk 3 +12 vs NE

Wk 4 −48 vs DEN

Wk 5 −10 @ MIN

Wk 6 −44 vs BUF

Wk 7 −47 @ PIT

Wk 8 −91 @ NE

Wk 9 +52 vs HOU

Wk 10 −10 @ ARI

Wk 11 −46 vs IND

Wk 13 −23 vs SEA

Wk 14 −47 @ MIA

Wk 15 +26 @ JAX

Wk 16 −16 vs LA

Wk 17 −9 @ BUF

Wk 18 +1 vs MIA

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jets’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.32	+1.6
Rest	+0.03	+1.0
Injuries	−0.04	−2.1
Judgment calls	−0.16	+6.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.26	−8.9
Kicks	−0.65	−35.2
Drops	−0.73	−8.3