luckadjusted

Week 4 2024 · September 29, 2024

Broncos at Jets, Week 4 2024: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Jets 10–9, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 26 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Jets were 71% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:04 left): A. Lazard dropped a catchable pass, worth 33 points of win probability to the Broncos. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:51 left): G. Zuerlein missed 50-yard field goal.

Final

Denver Broncos 10
New York Jets 9

September 29, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −7.5

Luck index +48 Broncos lucky · −48 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 5, Jets win 5.

  1. 1 DEN 27 NYJ 9
  2. 2 DEN 24 NYJ 10
  3. 3 DEN 28 NYJ 21
  4. 4 DEN 24 NYJ 20
  5. 5 DEN 19 NYJ 17
  6. 6 DEN 10 NYJ 12
  7. 7 DEN 12 NYJ 17
  8. 8 DEN 7 NYJ 16
  9. 9 DEN 3 NYJ 17
  10. 10 DEN 12 NYJ 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 52% of them, Jets 48%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+10.1%
Broncos by 9–1615.3%
Broncos by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation6.5%
Jets by 1–820.2%
Jets by 9–1616.0%
Jets by 17+9.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 1, without the luck Broncos by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • W. Lutz, 47 yds made · 73% expected
  • W. Lutz, 50 yds missed · 68% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 50 yds missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 5 for 74 yards, Jets 13 for 90 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:08 Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Troy Franklin), 10 yards +3% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q1 11:50 False Start on the Jets, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.3 pts
Q1 11:33 False Start on the Jets (Breece Hall), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN 0.0 pts
Q1 4:59 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.8 pts
Q1 4:01 Kick Catch Interference on the Jets, 15 yards 0% DEN +1.4 pts
Q1 3:53 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% NYJ +1.5 pts
Q1 1:24 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Allen Lazard), 10 yards +7% DEN +1.5 pts
Q1 1:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 34 yards +13% NYJ +4.2 pts
Q2 14:54 False Start on the Jets, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +1.8 pts
Q2 8:11 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Will McDonald), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% DEN +0.6 pts
Q3 12:57 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Qwan'tez Stiggers), 6 yards +2% DEN +0.6 pts
Q3 11:27 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% DEN +1.9 pts
Q3 9:25 False Start on the Jets (Breece Hall), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.9 pts
Q3 8:35 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q3 5:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Michael Carter II), 14 yards +2% DEN +1.2 pts
Q3 5:32 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Will McDonald), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% DEN +0.7 pts
Q3 1:31 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jets (Allen Lazard), 15 yards +7% DEN +1.0 pts
Q4 1:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 15 yards +8% NYJ +0.9 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:16 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedThe Jets fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% DEN NYJ: Punt
2 Q1 2:15 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Broncos fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% NYJ DEN: Punt
3 Q1 1:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 34 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 496 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +13% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
4 Q4 5:05 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +12% DEN NYJ: Punt
5 Q4 1:50 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +24% DEN NYJ: Missed field goal
6 Q4 1:31 W. Lutz missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 29 of 43 from 45+ before +29% NYJ DEN: End of game
7 Q4 1:04 The game turned hereA. Lazard dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 127 catchable balls before this +33% DEN NYJ: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:51 G. Zuerlein missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 51 of 74 from 45+ before +37% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Morgan Moses (NYJ T), out · 0.9 pts
  • C.J. Mosley (NYJ LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Carter Warren (NYJ T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mike McGlinchey (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Alex Singleton (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Baron Browning (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 52% · Jets 48%

Final margin
Broncos by 1
Luck in points
0.9 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 52% · Jets 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2024 games · Broncos · Jets

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