Week 4 2024 · September 29, 2024
Rams at Bears, Week 4 2024: who deserved to win?
The Bears beat the Rams 24–18, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Bears.
The Bears won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 28%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bears were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q2, 1:05 left): J. Karty missed 43-yard field goal, worth 15 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 Los Angeles Rams | 18 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +72 Bears very lucky · −72 Rams
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 7, Bears win 3.
- 1 LA 30 CHI 6
- 2 LA 30 CHI 13
- 3 LA 27 CHI 14
- 4 LA 19 CHI 9
- 5 LA 23 CHI 16
- 6 LA 13 CHI 9
- 7 LA 19 CHI 17
- 8 LA 25 CHI 27
- 9 LA 3 CHI 9
- 10 LA 7 CHI 21
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Bears won on an off day
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 28%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams offenseEPA per play gained | +0.19 | +0.10 | better by 0.09 |
| Rams defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.10 | better by 0.01 |
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.02 | better by 0.07 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.06 | worse by 0.13 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 72% of them, Bears 28%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 23.1% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 21.1% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 26.0% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 15.5% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 6.9% |
| Bears by 17+ | 2.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Karty, 46 yds made · 74% expected
- J. Karty, 37 yds made · 89% expected
- J. Karty, 43 yds missed · 79% expected
- C. Santos, 40 yds made · 85% expected
- J. Karty, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- J. Karty, 52 yds made · 63% expected
Penalties: Rams 6 for 44 yards, Bears 10 for 84 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Illegal Formation on the Bears (Tarvarius Moore), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.4 pts |
| Q1 4:01 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Bears, 15 yards | +2% LA +1.2 pts |
| Q1 0:02 | Encroachment on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Jaquan Brisker), 15 yards | +4% LA +1.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CHI +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:13 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 11:15 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% LA +1.8 pts |
| Q2 10:10 | Defensive Holding on the Rams (Tre'Davious White), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +7% CHI +1.7 pts |
| Q2 9:26 | Defensive Holding on the Rams (Kamren Curl), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% CHI +1.6 pts |
| Q2 8:12 | Illegal Formation on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +7% LA +1.9 pts |
| Q2 5:52 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Tre'Davious White), 14 yards | +10% CHI +2.2 pts |
| Q2 1:20 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Tutu Atwell), 10 yards | +3% CHI +1.9 pts |
| Q3 12:24 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 14 yards | +8% LA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 13:25 | False Start on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LA +0.5 pts |
| Q4 7:25 | False Start on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 4:27 | Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Rams, 5 yards | +2% CHI +0.5 pts |
Rams penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:10 | Defensive Holding on the Rams (Tre'Davious White), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 26 flags in 3761 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +7% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 6:51 | The Rams fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% CHI | LA: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q2 5:52 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Tre'Davious White), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 26 flags in 3761 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +10% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 1:05 | The game turned hereJ. Karty missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him | +15% CHI | LA: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 12:24 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1152 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +8% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 2:43 | The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +7% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 14:55 | The Rams’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +7% CHI | LA: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 7:25 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedFalse Start on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 15 flags in 3937 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 | +10% LA | CHI: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Patrick Scales (CHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Puka Nacua (LA WR), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
- Cooper Kupp (LA WR), out · 1.3 pts
- Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- John Johnson (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Steve Avila (LA G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 43% · Bears 57%
- Final margin
- Bears by 6
- Luck in points
- 8.9 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rams by 2.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 72% · Bears 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2024 games · 
Rams · 
Bears
More from Week 4 2024
- Cowboys at Giants DAL 20–15 · replay 91% for the winner
- Bengals at Panthers CIN 34–24 · replay 78% for the winner
- Broncos at Jets DEN 10–9 · replay 52% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 24–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers MIN 31–29 · replay 72% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons ATL 26–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- Eagles at Buccaneers TB 33–16 · replay 85% for the winner
- Steelers at Colts IND 27–24 · replay 66% for the winner
- Patriots at 49ers SF 30–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Commanders at Cardinals WAS 42–14 · replay 94% for the winner
- Browns at Raiders LV 20–16 · replay 65% for the winner
- Chiefs at Chargers KC 17–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bills at Ravens BAL 35–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Titans at Dolphins TEN 31–12 · replay 48% for the winner
- Seahawks at Lions DET 42–29 · replay 79% for the winner