luckadjusted

Week 4 2024 · September 30, 2024

Titans at Dolphins, Week 4 2024: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Dolphins 31–12, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Titans win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:09 left): C. Okonkwo dropped a catchable pass, worth 11 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Tennessee Titans 31
Miami Dolphins 12

September 30, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −2.5

Luck index +52 Titans lucky · −52 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 5, Dolphins win 5.

  1. 1 TEN 30 MIA 9
  2. 2 TEN 26 MIA 13
  3. 3 TEN 26 MIA 17
  4. 4 TEN 19 MIA 13
  5. 5 TEN 9 MIA 7
  6. 6 TEN 20 MIA 23
  7. 7 TEN 16 MIA 23
  8. 8 TEN 2 MIA 13
  9. 9 TEN 13 MIA 28
  10. 10 TEN 6 MIA 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 48% of them, Dolphins 52%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+10.6%
Titans by 9–1615.3%
Titans by 1–820.7%
Level after regulation4.9%
Dolphins by 1–820.9%
Dolphins by 9–1616.0%
Dolphins by 17+11.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +17.1 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 19, without the luck Titans by 1.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 53 yds made · 68% expected
  • N. Folk, 52 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Sanders, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • N. Folk, 47 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Sanders, 56 yds made · 58% expected
  • N. Folk, 51 yds made · 72% expected
  • N. Folk, 29 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 8 for 69 yards, Dolphins 10 for 98 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:54 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.7 pts
Q1 13:29 Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Jaelan Phillips), 15 yards +7% TEN +1.8 pts
Q1 12:40 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.5 pts
Q2 14:16 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Arden Key), 15 yards +3% MIA +0.5 pts
Q2 9:40 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% MIA +3.5 pts
Q2 8:20 Taunting on the Titans (L'Jarius Sneed), 15 yards +6% MIA +1.3 pts
Q2 0:27 Illegal Shift on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% TEN +0.1 pts
Q3 14:10 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Tre Avery), 10 yards +1% MIA +0.7 pts
Q3 11:40 Defensive Holding on the Titans (T'Vondre Sweat), 5 yards +1% MIA +0.9 pts
Q3 7:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Kader Kohou), 15 yards +7% TEN +2.0 pts
Q3 4:33 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Dolphins (Siran Neal), 15 yards +1% TEN +1.1 pts
Q3 1:31 False Start on the Titans, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.6 pts
Q4 14:04 Face Mask on the Dolphins (Emmanuel Ogbah), 15 yards +1% TEN +2.5 pts
Q4 9:30 Illegal Shift on the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% TEN +2.1 pts
Q4 9:04 Illegal Shift on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.9 pts
Q4 5:45 Illegal Shift on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% TEN +1.1 pts
Q4 2:33 Intentional Grounding on the Dolphins (Tyler Huntley), 8 yards 0% TEN +0.6 pts
Q4 2:27 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Dolphins (Jake Bailey), 10 yards 0% TEN +1.2 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:37 The Dolphins fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% TEN MIA: Punt
2 Q2 12:27 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +9% TEN MIA: Field goal
3 Q2 9:40 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% MIA MIA: Field goal
4 Q2 6:30 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% MIA MIA: Field goal
5 Q2 1:09 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedC. Okonkwo dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 111 catchable balls before this +11% MIA TEN: Punt
6 Q2 0:27 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedIllegal Shift on the Dolphins, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% TEN MIA: Punt
7 Q3 9:07 J. Sanders made 56-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 51 of 75 from 45+ before +8% MIA MIA: Punt
8 Q3 7:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Kader Kohou), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2131 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out (IR), replaced by t.huntley · 6.8 pts
  • Terron Armstead (MIA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Kendall Fuller (MIA CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Long (MIA LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jeffery Simmons (TEN DT), out · 0.7 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jaelyn Duncan (TEN T), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 89% · Dolphins 11%

Final margin
Titans by 19
Luck in points
17.1 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Titans 48% · Dolphins 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2024 games · Titans · Dolphins

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