luckadjusted

Week 4 2024 · September 29, 2024

Saints at Falcons, Week 4 2024: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Saints 26–24, but the Saints played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 44 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:07 left): Y. Koo made 58-yard field goal, worth 39 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

New Orleans Saints 24
Atlanta Falcons 26

September 29, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −2.5

Luck index +70 Falcons very lucky · −70 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 7, Falcons win 3.

  1. 1 NO 37 ATL 10
  2. 2 NO 19 ATL 0
  3. 3 NO 27 ATL 13
  4. 4 NO 20 ATL 10
  5. 5 NO 28 ATL 21
  6. 6 NO 16 ATL 12
  7. 7 NO 29 ATL 27
  8. 8 NO 7 ATL 10
  9. 9 NO 21 ATL 28
  10. 10 NO 6 ATL 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 70% of them, Falcons 30%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+20.5%
Saints by 9–1622.0%
Saints by 1–827.0%
Level after regulation4.1%
Falcons by 1–816.2%
Falcons by 9–167.3%
Falcons by 17+2.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 2, without the luck Falcons by 1.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 53 yds made · 74% expected
  • Y. Koo, 44 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. Grupe, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • Y. Koo, 42 yds made · 88% expected
  • Y. Koo, 58 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 6 for 60 yards, Falcons 9 for 76 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:51 Face Mask on the Falcons, 15 yards, wiping out the play +6% NO +2.4 pts
Q1 8:22 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Kentavius Street), 5 yards +2% NO +0.8 pts
Q2 11:40 Offensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Drake London), 10 yards +3% NO +1.1 pts
Q2 10:17 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +1.4 pts
Q2 4:49 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 6 yards +3% NO +1.0 pts
Q2 1:30 Illegal Formation on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% ATL +1.4 pts
Q2 1:16 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Matt Judon), 15 yards +7% NO +1.0 pts
Q3 13:43 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.5 pts
Q3 13:23 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% ATL +3.2 pts
Q4 12:16 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% NO +3.3 pts
Q4 5:43 Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Grady Jarrett), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% ATL +0.1 pts
Q4 3:28 False Start on the Saints (Juwan Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.6 pts
Q4 3:28 Illegal Motion on the Saints (Rashid Shaheed), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +31% ATL +3.2 pts
Q4 0:41 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NO +0.3 pts
Q4 0:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 30 yards +24% ATL +1.0 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:25 The Saints fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams +32% ATL NO: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:05 The Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams +32% ATL NO: Punt
3 Q3 13:23 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% ATL ATL: Field goal
4 Q4 4:01 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +14% ATL NO: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:28 False Start on the Saints (Juwan Johnson), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 2103 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280Illegal Motion on the Saints (Rashid Shaheed), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 1283 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +33% ATL ATL: Field goal
6 Q4 1:58 The Saints converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +13% NO NO: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 30 yardsJudgment calls · 23 flags in 2961 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +24% ATL ATL: Field goal
8 Q4 0:07 The game turned hereY. Koo made 58-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 47 of 58 from 45+ before +39% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DeMarcco Hellams (ATL SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Demario Davis (NO LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Cesar Ruiz (NO C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cesar Ruiz (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
  • A.T. Perry (NO WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 42% · Falcons 58%

Final margin
Falcons by 2
Luck in points
0.7 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Saints 70% · Falcons 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2024 games · Saints · Falcons

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