luckadjusted

2024 season · final

New Orleans Saints, 2024: game by game

The Saints went 5–12 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.3 wins. Luck cost them 2.3: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.

Every game

How often the Saints win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Panthers W 47–10 99% +1
Week 2 @ Cowboys W 44–19 89% +11
Week 3 vs Eagles L 12–15 10% −10
Week 4 @ Falcons L 24–26 70% −70
Week 5 @ Chiefs L 13–26 29% −29
Week 6 vs Buccaneers L 27–51 8% −8
Week 7 vs Broncos L 10–33 33% −33
Week 8 @ Chargers L 8–26 24% −24
Week 9 @ Panthers L 22–23 77% −77
Week 10 vs Falcons W 20–17 32% +68
Week 11 vs Browns W 35–14 70% +30
Week 13 vs Rams L 14–21 25% −25
Week 14 @ Giants W 14–11 89% +11
Week 15 vs Commanders L 19–20 46% −46
Week 16 @ Packers L 0–34 3% −3
Week 17 vs Raiders L 10–25 7% −7
Week 18 @ Buccaneers L 19–27 14% −14

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Saints’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Kicks+0.48+14.8
Rest−0.05−2.0
Drops−0.07−8.1
Fumble bounces−0.23−7.9
3rd & 4th downs−0.41−12.5
Judgment calls−0.73−4.7
Injuries−1.08−44.5