luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024

Falcons at Saints, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Falcons 20–17, but the Falcons played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 37 points of win probability to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:43 left): Y. Koo missed 46-yard field goal, worth 24 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 17
New Orleans Saints 20

November 10, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Falcons −3.5

Luck index +68 Saints very lucky · −68 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 7, Saints win 3.

  1. 1 ATL 40 NO 13
  2. 2 ATL 37 NO 16
  3. 3 ATL 33 NO 17
  4. 4 ATL 43 NO 31
  5. 5 ATL 47 NO 39
  6. 6 ATL 24 NO 19
  7. 7 ATL 22 NO 20
  8. 8 ATL 23 NO 26
  9. 9 ATL 26 NO 34
  10. 10 ATL 13 NO 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 68% of them, Saints 32%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+23.1%
Falcons by 9–1619.1%
Falcons by 1–825.0%
Level after regulation3.9%
Saints by 1–816.2%
Saints by 9–167.9%
Saints by 17+4.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 3, without the luck Falcons by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • Y. Koo, 53 yds missed · 73% expected
  • Y. Koo, 35 yds blocked · 95% expected
  • Y. Koo, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Grupe, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 46 yds missed · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 6 for 45 yards, Saints 8 for 76 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:02 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Foster Moreau), 10 yards +3% ATL +0.8 pts
Q1 3:57 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.6 pts
Q1 1:53 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +2% ATL +1.1 pts
Q1 0:42 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (Arnold Ebiketie), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.8 pts
Q2 14:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Alontae Taylor), 13 yards +3% ATL +0.8 pts
Q2 12:06 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Ta'Quon Graham), 5 yards +2% NO +1.2 pts
Q3 10:00 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NO +1.8 pts
Q3 8:27 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Khalen Saunders), 6 yards +2% ATL +0.8 pts
Q3 8:05 Low Block on the Falcons, 15 yards +3% NO +1.4 pts
Q3 7:31 False Start on the Falcons (Darnell Mooney), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.6 pts
Q4 9:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Alontae Taylor), 16 yards +7% ATL +1.6 pts
Q4 7:27 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.3 pts
Q4 6:06 Intentional Grounding on the Saints (Derek Carr), 11 yards +3% ATL +0.9 pts
Q4 0:46 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Alontae Taylor), 5 yards +2% ATL +0.3 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:04 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +8% ATL NO: Field goal
2 Q1 3:32 The Saints converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +9% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q2 12:11 Y. Koo missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 51 of 65 from 45+ before +10% NO ATL: Touchdown
4 Q4 6:43 Y. Koo missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him, 51 of 66 from 45+ before +24% NO ATL: Turnover
5 Q4 2:07 The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 53% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% NO ATL: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 1:48 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedA. Kamara dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 203 catchable balls before this +10% ATL NO: Punt
7 Q4 0:41 The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% ATL ATL: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:07 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +16% NO –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chris Olave (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Rashid Shaheed (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Lucas Patrick (NO G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 65% · Saints 35%

Final margin
Saints by 3
Luck in points
3.4 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 68% · Saints 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Falcons · Saints

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