Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024
Steelers at Commanders, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?
The Steelers stole one. They beat the Commanders 28–27, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Steelers.
The Steelers won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Commanders were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:27 left): the Steelers converted 3rd & 9, worth 27 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 28 |
|---|---|
 Washington Commanders | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +86 Steelers very lucky · −86 Commanders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 1, Commanders win 9.
- 1 PIT 34 WAS 28
- 2 PIT 34 WAS 37
- 3 PIT 28 WAS 33
- 4 PIT 21 WAS 28
- 5 PIT 17 WAS 27
- 6 PIT 13 WAS 26
- 7 PIT 26 WAS 42
- 8 PIT 17 WAS 37
- 9 PIT 20 WAS 45
- 10 PIT 3 WAS 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Steelers won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
34 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.04 | +0.05 | worse by 0.01 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.14 | +0.07 | better by 0.21 |
| Commanders offenseEPA per play gained | −0.14 | +0.13 | worse by 0.26 |
| Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.12 | better by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 14% of them, Commanders 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 1.0% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 8.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| Commanders by 1–8 | 19.8% |
| Commanders by 9–16 | 22.1% |
| Commanders by 17+ | 44.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Z. Gonzalez, 48 yds made · 73% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 41 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Steelers 5 for 49 yards, Commanders 5 for 41 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:25 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 14 yards | +3% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q1 9:25 | Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Jeremy Chinn), 15 yards | +5% PIT +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:12 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 23 yards | +3% WAS +1.3 pts |
| Q2 4:15 | Face Mask on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +6% WAS +1.7 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 2 yards | +2% WAS +0.8 pts |
| Q3 8:55 | Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Dante Fowler), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PIT +0.5 pts |
| Q3 7:18 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 4 yards | +1% WAS +0.4 pts |
| Q4 6:27 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders (John Bates), 2 yards, wiping out the play | +3% PIT +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:46 | Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +9% WAS +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:02 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Commanders (Jer'Zhan Newton), 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% PIT +1.3 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Commanders’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:20 | The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedJ. Pierre dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 0 catchable balls before this | +12% WAS | PIT: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 13:00 | The Commanders fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% PIT | WAS: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 13:39 | The Commanders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +7% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 7:12 | The Steelers fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +12% WAS | PIT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 5:46 | Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +9% WAS | WAS: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 2:27 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +27% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:28 | The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +25% PIT | – |
| 8 | Q4 1:02 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Commanders (Jer'Zhan Newton), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 231 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 | +8% PIT | PIT: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jonathan Allen (WAS DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Cornelius Lucas (WAS T), out · 0.3 pts
- Andrew Wylie (WAS G), out · 0.3 pts
- Austin Seibert (WAS K), out · 0.2 pts
- James Daniels (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 74% · Commanders 26%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 1
- Luck in points
- 0.5 for the Commanders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Steelers by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 14% · Commanders 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · 
Steelers · 
Commanders
More from Week 10 2024
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 35–34 · replay 77% for the winner
- Giants vs Panthers CAR 20–17 · replay 15% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints NO 20–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Bills at Colts BUF 30–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 16–14 · replay 91% for the winner
- Vikings at Jaguars MIN 12–7 · replay 84% for the winner
- Patriots at Bears NE 19–3 · replay 77% for the winner
- 49ers at Buccaneers SF 23–20 · replay 84% for the winner
- Titans at Chargers LAC 27–17 · replay 84% for the winner
- Jets at Cardinals ARI 31–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys PHI 34–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Lions at Texans DET 26–23 · replay 60% for the winner
- Dolphins at Rams MIA 23–15 · replay 28% for the winner