Week 10 2024 · November 11, 2024
Dolphins at Rams, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?
The Dolphins beat the Rams 23–15, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Dolphins.
Before kickoff the Rams were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:52 left): the Dolphins converted 3rd & 13, worth 16 points of win probability to the Dolphins.
Final
 Miami Dolphins | 23 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Rams | 15 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +72 Dolphins very lucky · −72 Rams
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Dolphins win 3, Rams win 7.
- 1 MIA 26 LA 10
- 2 MIA 21 LA 13
- 3 MIA 13 LA 10
- 4 MIA 10 LA 12
- 5 MIA 13 LA 17
- 6 MIA 13 LA 20
- 7 MIA 7 LA 17
- 8 MIA 9 LA 23
- 9 MIA 3 LA 22
- 10 MIA 10 LA 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Dolphins win 28% of them, Rams 72%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Dolphins by 17+ | 2.6% |
| Dolphins by 9–16 | 7.8% |
| Dolphins by 1–8 | 15.3% |
| Level after regulation | 3.9% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 25.6% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 22.5% |
| Rams by 17+ | 22.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Sanders, 50 yds made · 74% expected
- J. Karty, 34 yds made · 94% expected
- J. Karty, 55 yds made · 67% expected
- J. Karty, 57 yds missed · 65% expected
- J. Karty, 53 yds made · 70% expected
- J. Sanders, 37 yds made · 92% expected
- J. Karty, 22 yds made · 99% expected
- J. Sanders, 50 yds made · 74% expected
- J. Karty, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Penalties: Dolphins 1 for 15 yards, Rams 6 for 64 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:45 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Dolphins (Siran Neal), 15 yards | +3% LA +1.0 pts |
| Q1 2:11 | Illegal Formation on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIA +0.8 pts |
| Q2 10:18 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Rams (Braden Fiske), 15 yards | +3% MIA +1.4 pts |
| Q3 9:34 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 5:32 | Roughing the Kicker on the Rams, 15 yards | +4% MIA +1.4 pts |
| Q4 14:55 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Bobby Brown), 15 yards | +5% MIA +2.3 pts |
| Q4 2:12 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 9 yards | +4% MIA +1.0 pts |
Dolphins penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Rams’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:52 | The Dolphins converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +16% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 1:09 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Rams threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +11% MIA | LA: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 7:47 | The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Dolphins fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +16% LA | MIA: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 5:53 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedD. Allen dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 16 catchable balls before this | +10% MIA | LA: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 0:03 | J. Karty made 55-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before | +9% LA | LA: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q3 11:45 | The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% LA | LA: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q3 6:27 | The Dolphins converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +10% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 14:55 | The Dolphins got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Bobby Brown), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 944 snaps before, position avg 1 per 528 | +10% MIA | MIA: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 1.0 pts
- Troy Reeder (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Dolphins 54% · Rams 46%
- Final margin
- Dolphins by 8
- Luck in points
- 7.8 for the Dolphins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Dolphins by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Dolphins 28% · Rams 72% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · 
Dolphins · 
Rams
More from Week 10 2024
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 35–34 · replay 77% for the winner
- Giants vs Panthers CAR 20–17 · replay 15% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints NO 20–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Bills at Colts BUF 30–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 16–14 · replay 91% for the winner
- Vikings at Jaguars MIN 12–7 · replay 84% for the winner
- Patriots at Bears NE 19–3 · replay 77% for the winner
- Steelers at Commanders PIT 28–27 · replay 14% for the winner
- 49ers at Buccaneers SF 23–20 · replay 84% for the winner
- Titans at Chargers LAC 27–17 · replay 84% for the winner
- Jets at Cardinals ARI 31–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys PHI 34–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Lions at Texans DET 26–23 · replay 60% for the winner