luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · November 7, 2024–November 11

Week 10 2024: who deserved to win

4 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Steelers beat the Commanders 28–27 in a game they win 14% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 10 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Panthers 20–17 vs Giants 32% 15% Lucky
Patriots 19–3 @ Bears 32% 77% Deserved
Saints 20–17 vs Falcons 40% 32% Lucky
Dolphins 23–15 @ Rams 43% 28% Lucky
Cardinals 31–6 vs Jets 44% 90% Deserved
Steelers 28–27 @ Commanders 46% 14% Lucky

Week 10 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Steelers W 28–27 @ Commanders 14% +86
2 Panthers W 20–17 vs Giants 15% +85
3 Dolphins W 23–15 @ Rams 28% +72
4 Saints W 20–17 vs Falcons 32% +68
5 Lions W 26–23 @ Texans 60% +40
6 Ravens W 35–34 vs Bengals 77% +23
7 Patriots W 19–3 @ Bears 77% +23
8 Vikings W 12–7 @ Jaguars 84% +16
9 Chargers W 27–17 vs Titans 84% +16
10 49ers W 23–20 @ Buccaneers 84% +16
11 Bills W 30–20 @ Colts 89% +11
12 Cardinals W 31–6 vs Jets 90% +10
13 Chiefs W 16–14 vs Broncos 91% +9
14 Eagles W 34–6 @ Cowboys 99% +1
15 Cowboys L 6–34 vs Eagles 1% −1
16 Broncos L 14–16 @ Chiefs 9% −9
17 Jets L 6–31 @ Cardinals 10% −10
18 Colts L 20–30 vs Bills 11% −11
19 Buccaneers L 20–23 vs 49ers 16% −16
20 Titans L 17–27 @ Chargers 16% −16
21 Jaguars L 7–12 vs Vikings 16% −16
22 Bengals L 34–35 @ Ravens 23% −23
23 Bears L 3–19 vs Patriots 23% −23
24 Texans L 23–26 vs Lions 40% −40
25 Falcons L 17–20 @ Saints 68% −68
26 Rams L 15–23 vs Dolphins 72% −72
27 Giants L 17–20 @ Panthers 85% −85
28 Commanders L 27–28 vs Steelers 86% −86