luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · November 14, 2024–November 18

Week 11 2024: who deserved to win

3 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Steelers beat the Ravens 18–16 in a game they win 13% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 11 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Seahawks 20–17 @ 49ers 33% 35% Lucky
Colts 28–27 @ Jets 38% 54% Coin flip
Steelers 18–16 vs Ravens 41% 13% Lucky
Saints 35–14 vs Browns 47% 70% Deserved

Week 11 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Steelers W 18–16 vs Ravens 13% +87
2 Seahawks W 20–17 @ 49ers 35% +65
3 Eagles W 26–18 vs Commanders 38% +62
4 Bills W 30–21 vs Chiefs 50% +50
5 Chargers W 34–27 vs Bengals 50% +50
6 Colts W 28–27 @ Jets 54% +46
7 Broncos W 38–6 vs Falcons 57% +43
8 Dolphins W 34–19 vs Raiders 58% +42
9 Saints W 35–14 vs Browns 70% +30
10 Vikings W 23–13 @ Titans 84% +16
11 Packers W 20–19 @ Bears 89% +11
12 Rams W 28–22 @ Patriots 91% +9
13 Texans W 34–10 @ Cowboys 96% +4
14 Lions W 52–6 vs Jaguars 100% 0
15 Jaguars L 6–52 @ Lions 0% 0
16 Cowboys L 10–34 vs Texans 4% −4
17 Patriots L 22–28 vs Rams 9% −9
18 Bears L 19–20 vs Packers 11% −11
19 Titans L 13–23 vs Vikings 16% −16
20 Browns L 14–35 @ Saints 30% −30
21 Raiders L 19–34 @ Dolphins 42% −42
22 Falcons L 6–38 @ Broncos 43% −43
23 Jets L 27–28 vs Colts 46% −46
24 Bengals L 27–34 @ Chargers 50% −50
25 Chiefs L 21–30 @ Bills 50% −50
26 Commanders L 18–26 @ Eagles 62% −62
27 49ers L 17–20 vs Seahawks 65% −65
28 Ravens L 16–18 @ Steelers 87% −87