luckadjusted

Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024

Ravens at Steelers, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?

The Steelers stole one. They beat the Ravens 18–16, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 37 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:34 left): Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 25 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 16
Pittsburgh Steelers 18

November 17, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +87 Steelers very lucky · −87 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 9, Steelers win 1.

  1. 1 BAL 48 PIT 13
  2. 2 BAL 30 PIT 3
  3. 3 BAL 42 PIT 20
  4. 4 BAL 38 PIT 21
  5. 5 BAL 33 PIT 19
  6. 6 BAL 41 PIT 29
  7. 7 BAL 34 PIT 26
  8. 8 BAL 35 PIT 30
  9. 9 BAL 37 PIT 35
  10. 10 BAL 19 PIT 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 87% of them, Steelers 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+50.6%
Ravens by 9–1618.7%
Ravens by 1–818.0%
Level after regulation1.6%
Steelers by 1–87.1%
Steelers by 9–163.0%
Steelers by 17+1.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.5 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 2, without the luck Ravens by 12.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 32 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Tucker, 47 yds missed · 80% expected
  • J. Tucker, 50 yds missed · 74% expected
  • C. Boswell, 52 yds made · 75% expected
  • C. Boswell, 32 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Boswell, 57 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Tucker, 54 yds made · 67% expected
  • C. Boswell, 27 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Boswell, 50 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 12 for 80 yards, Steelers 7 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:00 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% PIT +1.7 pts
Q1 7:20 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Ravens (Kyle Van Noy), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +1.4 pts
Q1 7:00 False Start on the Steelers (Ben Skowronek), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.8 pts
Q2 15:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Ravens (Sanoussi Kane), 10 yards +2% PIT +1.0 pts
Q2 7:39 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% PIT +1.4 pts
Q2 6:46 False Start on the Ravens (Nelson Agholor), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +1.3 pts
Q2 5:07 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Patrick Queen), 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% BAL +1.5 pts
Q2 0:29 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 5 yards 0% PIT +0.4 pts
Q2 0:14 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.4 pts
Q3 14:24 Illegal Use of Hands on the Ravens (Travis Jones), 5 yards +2% PIT +1.1 pts
Q3 6:52 Defensive Offside on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% BAL +1.0 pts
Q3 5:34 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% BAL +2.2 pts
Q3 2:58 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +4% BAL +1.3 pts
Q3 0:56 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Malik Harrison), 10 yards +2% PIT +1.3 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Ravens (Zay Flowers), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.8 pts
Q4 8:46 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play +13% PIT +2.0 pts
Q4 8:14 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.5 pts
Q4 8:14 False Start on the Steelers (Connor Heyward), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.4 pts
Q4 1:34 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play +25% PIT +3.6 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:14 J. Tucker missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 56 of 76 from 45+ before +12% PIT BAL: Missed field goal
2 Q1 3:12 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% BAL PIT: Punt
3 Q1 1:42 J. Tucker missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 56 of 77 from 45+ before +9% PIT BAL: Punt
4 Q2 0:38 The Ravens fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% PIT BAL: End of half
5 Q4 9:33 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% BAL PIT: Field goal
6 Q4 8:46 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% PIT PIT: Field goal
7 Q4 1:34 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +25% PIT PIT: End of game
8 Q4 1:06 The Ravens’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +13% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • James Daniels (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Eddie Jackson (BAL FS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 93% · Steelers 7%

Final margin
Steelers by 2
Luck in points
14.5 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 12.5
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 87% · Steelers 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · Ravens · Steelers

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