luckadjusted

Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024

Browns at Saints, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Browns 35–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:29 left): the Saints converted 4th & 1, worth 27 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Cleveland Browns 14
New Orleans Saints 35

November 17, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Browns −1

Luck index +30 Saints lucky · −30 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 3, Saints win 7.

  1. 1 CLE 38 NO 20
  2. 2 CLE 17 NO 7
  3. 3 CLE 26 NO 23
  4. 4 CLE 20 NO 22
  5. 5 CLE 27 NO 31
  6. 6 CLE 5 NO 13
  7. 7 CLE 21 NO 32
  8. 8 CLE 0 NO 16
  9. 9 CLE 19 NO 39
  10. 10 CLE 3 NO 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 30% of them, Saints 70%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+4.5%
Browns by 9–167.8%
Browns by 1–815.2%
Level after regulation3.8%
Saints by 1–823.1%
Saints by 9–1620.5%
Saints by 17+25.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 21, without the luck Saints by 21. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 51 yds missed · 73% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 27 yds missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 3 for 14 yards, Saints 5 for 41 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Will Harris), 15 yards +3% CLE +0.7 pts
Q1 6:36 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 9 yards +2% CLE +1.4 pts
Q1 2:37 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Juwan Johnson), 11 yards, wiping out the play +8% CLE +5.1 pts
Q1 1:52 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Saints (Carl Granderson), 1 yard · pre-snap +2% NO 0.0 pts
Q2 10:42 False Start on the Browns, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.6 pts
Q2 0:14 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Payton Turner), 5 yards +7% CLE +0.8 pts
Q4 10:36 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.7 pts
Q4 8:54 Encroachment on the Browns (Dalvin Tomlinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.7 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:33 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% NO CLE: Punt
2 Q1 2:37 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Juwan Johnson), 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2447 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +8% CLE CLE: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:53 The Saints converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +14% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:00 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedThe Saints fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% CLE NO: Punt
5 Q2 0:14 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Payton Turner), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 712 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +7% CLE CLE: Missed field goal
6 Q2 0:07 The Browns got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 53% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% CLE CLE: Missed field goal
7 Q3 1:58 The Saints converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% NO NO: Touchdown
8 Q4 13:29 The Saints converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +27% NO NO: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chris Olave (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Rashid Shaheed (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Lucas Patrick (NO G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • James Hudson (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Charley Hughlett (CLE LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Saints 100%

Final margin
Saints by 21
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 21.0
Replay with same day's form
Browns 30% · Saints 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · Browns · Saints

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