luckadjusted

Week 11 2024 · November 18, 2024

Texans at Cowboys, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Cowboys 34–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 10 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Texans were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:55 left): Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 21 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Houston Texans 34
Dallas Cowboys 10

November 18, 2024 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Texans −7.5

Luck index +4 Texans about even · −4 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 10, Cowboys win 0.

  1. 1 HOU 44 DAL 7
  2. 2 HOU 40 DAL 10
  3. 3 HOU 34 DAL 9
  4. 4 HOU 34 DAL 13
  5. 5 HOU 30 DAL 12
  6. 6 HOU 31 DAL 16
  7. 7 HOU 15 DAL 3
  8. 8 HOU 34 DAL 24
  9. 9 HOU 27 DAL 21
  10. 10 HOU 17 DAL 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 96% of them, Cowboys 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+69.3%
Texans by 9–1618.2%
Texans by 1–87.8%
Level after regulation0.8%
Cowboys by 1–83.0%
Cowboys by 9–160.8%
Cowboys by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 24, without the luck Texans by 22.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 53 yds made · 78% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 40 yds missed · 91% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 29 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 9 for 69 yards, Cowboys 9 for 66 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:55 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play +21% DAL +6.9 pts
Q1 14:44 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Mazi Smith), 5 yards +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 12:42 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Israel Mukuamu), 10 yards +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 12:42 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL 0.0 pts
Q1 5:04 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.3 pts
Q2 14:15 False Start on the Texans (Joe Mixon), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.7 pts
Q2 11:50 Low Block on the Cowboys (DeMarvion Overshown), 15 yards +4% HOU +2.1 pts
Q2 9:13 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.2 pts
Q2 2:00 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Ka'dar Hollman), 5 yards 0% DAL +0.3 pts
Q2 1:51 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Azeez Al-Shaair), 5 yards +2% DAL +0.7 pts
Q3 8:14 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +4% DAL +1.6 pts
Q3 4:37 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 10 yards +3% HOU +0.8 pts
Q3 4:21 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Derek Barnett), 15 yards +12% DAL +2.8 pts
Q4 13:44 Illegal Shift on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.6 pts
Q4 12:31 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Jalen Pitre), 15 yards 0% DAL +1.4 pts
Q4 11:56 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% HOU +2.3 pts
Q4 3:19 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.2 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:55 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +21% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 8:32 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedThe Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% DAL HOU: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:58 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 53% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% HOU DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 15:00 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedFalse Start on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 18 flags in 4483 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +14% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:00 B. Aubrey missed 40-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +9% HOU DAL: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 4:21 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Derek Barnett), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 20 flags in 2995 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +12% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 2:54 The Cowboys got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 53% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 12:44 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +13% HOU DAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by c.rush · 6.9 pts
  • Brandin Cooks (DAL WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jourdan Lewis (DAL CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Amani Oruwariye (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jalen Brooks (DAL WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Stefon Diggs (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Kamari Lassiter (HOU CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 100% · Cowboys 0%

Final margin
Texans by 24
Luck in points
1.6 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 22.4
Replay with same day's form
Texans 96% · Cowboys 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · Texans · Cowboys

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