Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024
Packers at Bears, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Bears 20–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 26 points of win probability to the Bears.
Before kickoff the Packers were 67% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:03 left): C. Santos had a 46-yard field goal blocked, worth 73 points of win probability to the Packers.
Final
 Green Bay Packers | 20 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Packers about even · −11 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Packers win 9, Bears win 1.
- 1 GB 35 CHI 9
- 2 GB 35 CHI 14
- 3 GB 20 CHI 3
- 4 GB 14 CHI 0
- 5 GB 24 CHI 13
- 6 GB 27 CHI 17
- 7 GB 27 CHI 20
- 8 GB 7 CHI 3
- 9 GB 27 CHI 24
- 10 GB 20 CHI 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Packers win 89% of them, Bears 11%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Packers by 17+ | 35.6% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 26.5% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 26.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 8.2% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| Bears by 17+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Santos, 53 yds made · 69% expected
- C. Santos, 27 yds made · 99% expected
- C. Santos, 46 yds blocked · 81% expected
Penalties: Packers 3 for 25 yards, Bears 7 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:51 | Illegal Shift on the Bears (DeAndre Carter), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% GB +2.3 pts |
| Q1 0:51 | Illegal Motion on the Bears (D.J. Moore), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +6% GB +2.0 pts |
| Q1 0:28 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Xavier McKinney), 15 yards | +5% CHI +2.2 pts |
| Q2 13:36 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Amen Ogbongbemiga), 15 yards | +5% GB +1.7 pts |
| Q2 9:49 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Byron Cowart), 5 yards · pre-snap | +9% GB +3.6 pts |
| Q2 6:49 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Packers, 5 yards | +2% CHI +1.1 pts |
| Q3 8:58 | Defensive Offside on the Bears (Montez Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CHI +0.2 pts |
| Q3 1:33 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Rome Odunze), 10 yards | +5% GB +1.1 pts |
| Q3 0:45 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Lukas Van Ness), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% CHI +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:27 | Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GB +0.5 pts |
Packers penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 9:49 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Byron Cowart), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 940 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 | +9% GB | GB: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 6:00 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +17% CHI | GB: End of half |
| 3 | Q2 0:10 | The Bears converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +10% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 2:55 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +8% GB | CHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 2:15 | The Bears converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +15% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 11:29 | The Packers were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +12% CHI | GB: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:33 | The Bears converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +21% CHI | CHI: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:03 | The game turned hereC. Santos had a 46-yard field goal blockedKicks · 81% expected for him, 35 of 47 from 45+ before | +73% GB | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Teven Jenkins (CHI T), out · 0.5 pts
- Jaquan Brisker (CHI SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Andrew Billings (CHI DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Packers 71% · Bears 29%
- Final margin
- Packers by 1
- Luck in points
- 0.6 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Packers 89% · Bears 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · 
Packers · 
Bears
More from Week 11 2024
- Commanders at Eagles PHI 26–18 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ravens at Steelers PIT 18–16 · replay 13% for the winner
- Browns at Saints NO 35–14 · replay 70% for the winner
- Colts at Jets IND 28–27 · replay 54% for the winner
- Jaguars at Lions DET 52–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Rams at Patriots LA 28–22 · replay 91% for the winner
- Raiders at Dolphins MIA 34–19 · replay 58% for the winner
- Vikings at Titans MIN 23–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Falcons at Broncos DEN 38–6 · replay 57% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SEA 20–17 · replay 35% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bills BUF 30–21 · replay 50% for the winner
- Bengals at Chargers LAC 34–27 · replay 50% for the winner
- Texans at Cowboys HOU 34–10 · replay 96% for the winner