luckadjusted

Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024

Falcons at Broncos, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Falcons 38–6, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:15 left): the Broncos converted 3rd & 10, worth 9 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 6
Denver Broncos 38

November 17, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −2

Luck index +43 Broncos lucky · −43 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 4, Broncos win 6.

  1. 1 ATL 24 DEN 6
  2. 2 ATL 27 DEN 16
  3. 3 ATL 20 DEN 14
  4. 4 ATL 23 DEN 21
  5. 5 ATL 13 DEN 15
  6. 6 ATL 16 DEN 20
  7. 7 ATL 13 DEN 20
  8. 8 ATL 10 DEN 19
  9. 9 ATL 3 DEN 17
  10. 10 ATL 7 DEN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 43% of them, Broncos 57%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+8.4%
Falcons by 9–1613.5%
Falcons by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation6.6%
Broncos by 1–825.5%
Broncos by 9–1615.0%
Broncos by 17+10.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.0 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 32, without the luck Broncos by 28. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • Y. Koo, 51 yds made · 70% expected
  • W. Lutz, 45 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 6 for 52 yards, Broncos 4 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:37 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Lil'Jordan Humphrey), 10 yards +7% ATL +1.4 pts
Q1 10:56 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Richie Grant), 12 yards +4% DEN +2.4 pts
Q1 3:56 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% DEN +2.1 pts
Q1 3:27 Illegal Motion on the Falcons (Drake London), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% DEN +2.2 pts
Q1 0:11 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (DeAngelo Malone), 15 yards +5% DEN +1.8 pts
Q2 9:38 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.5 pts
Q3 7:40 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% ATL +2.1 pts
Q3 5:05 Face Mask on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% DEN +1.1 pts
Q3 4:11 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.8 pts
Q4 13:08 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.6 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:25 The Broncos converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:37 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Lil'Jordan Humphrey), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1382 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +7% ATL ATL: Field goal
3 Q1 3:27 Illegal Motion on the Falcons (Drake London), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 2266 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +6% DEN DEN: Punt
4 Q1 1:37 Y. Koo made 41-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +5% ATL ATL: Punt
5 Q2 14:52 The Falcons converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% ATL ATL: Punt
6 Q2 14:22 The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% ATL ATL: Punt
7 Q2 9:15 The Broncos converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% DEN DEN: Touchdown
8 Q2 4:29 The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +6% ATL ATL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Jones (DEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Mike Hughes (ATL CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 0% · Broncos 100%

Final margin
Broncos by 32
Luck in points
4.0 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 28.0
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 43% · Broncos 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · Falcons · Broncos

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