luckadjusted

Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024

Vikings at Titans, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Titans 23–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:12 left): the Titans converted 3rd & 10, worth 20 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 23
Tennessee Titans 13

November 17, 2024 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −6

Luck index +16 Vikings about even · −16 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 8, Titans win 2.

  1. 1 MIN 42 TEN 10
  2. 2 MIN 27 TEN 3
  3. 3 MIN 33 TEN 14
  4. 4 MIN 30 TEN 14
  5. 5 MIN 27 TEN 14
  6. 6 MIN 20 TEN 10
  7. 7 MIN 20 TEN 13
  8. 8 MIN 23 TEN 20
  9. 9 MIN 19 TEN 23
  10. 10 MIN 9 TEN 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 84% of them, Titans 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+37.9%
Vikings by 9–1621.1%
Vikings by 1–824.0%
Level after regulation1.1%
Titans by 1–810.1%
Titans by 9–164.3%
Titans by 17+1.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.5 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 10, without the luck Vikings by 5.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 30 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Romo, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • N. Folk, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 3 for 35 yards, Titans 12 for 91 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:56 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.6 pts
Q1 10:48 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Kenneth Murray), 15 yards +5% MIN +1.7 pts
Q1 3:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Jarvis Brownlee), 16 yards +8% MIN +1.8 pts
Q1 3:16 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Nick Vannett), 10 yards +3% MIN +1.4 pts
Q2 9:40 Defensive Offside on the Titans (T'Vondre Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% MIN +1.7 pts
Q2 7:48 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans, 0 yards +5% MIN +2.0 pts
Q2 6:17 Horse Collar Tackle on the Titans (James Williams), 15 yards +4% MIN +1.2 pts
Q2 3:22 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Trent Sherfield), 10 yards +3% TEN +1.0 pts
Q2 2:17 Illegal Contact on the Titans, 5 yards +1% MIN +0.4 pts
Q3 5:31 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Jarvis Brownlee), 5 yards, wiping out the play +9% MIN +2.6 pts
Q3 2:38 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% MIN +1.2 pts
Q3 0:54 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +14% MIN +6.1 pts
Q4 10:48 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Ty Chandler), 15 yards +2% TEN +1.3 pts
Q4 4:09 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +9% MIN +2.7 pts
Q4 2:11 Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Sam Darnold), 10 yards 0% TEN +0.8 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:31 The Vikings fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% TEN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:07 The Titans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% TEN TEN: Field goal
3 Q2 13:51 The Vikings converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q3 7:12 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +20% TEN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q3 5:31 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Jarvis Brownlee), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 475 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q3 0:54 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +14% MIN MIN: Punt
7 Q3 0:48 The Titans converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +8% TEN TEN: Field goal
8 Q4 4:09 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +9% MIN MIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quandre Diggs (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Lloyd Cushenberry III (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Will Reichard (MIN K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Andrew DePaola (MIN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 82% · Titans 18%

Final margin
Vikings by 10
Luck in points
4.5 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 5.5
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 84% · Titans 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · Vikings · Titans

More from Week 11 2024