luckadjusted

2024 season · final

Denver Broncos, 2024: game by game

The Broncos went 10–7 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.3 wins. Luck added 2.7: the 4th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–6.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.

Every game

How often the Broncos win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Seahawks L 20–26 1% −1
Week 2 vs Steelers L 6–13 50% −50
Week 3 @ Buccaneers W 26–7 55% +45
Week 4 @ Jets W 10–9 52% +48
Week 5 vs Raiders W 34–18 30% +70
Week 6 vs Chargers L 16–23 48% −48
Week 7 @ Saints W 33–10 67% +33
Week 8 vs Panthers W 28–14 63% +37
Week 9 @ Ravens L 10–41 8% −8
Week 10 @ Chiefs L 14–16 9% −9
Week 11 vs Falcons W 38–6 57% +43
Week 12 @ Raiders W 29–19 31% +69
Week 13 vs Browns W 41–32 71% +29
Week 15 vs Colts W 31–13 48% +52
Week 16 @ Chargers L 27–34 26% −26
Week 17 @ Bengals L 24–30 11% −11
Week 18 vs Chiefs W 38–0 98% +2
Wild Card @ Bills L 7–31 10% −10

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Broncos’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Injuries+0.79+33.9
Drops+0.22−1.4
Fumble bounces+0.13−1.6
3rd & 4th downs+0.12+0.2
Kicks−0.05+13.3
Rest−0.06−2.0
Judgment calls−0.50−32.7