luckadjusted

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Steelers at Broncos, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Broncos 13–6, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Steelers win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:43 left): Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 13
Denver Broncos 6

September 15, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Steelers −3

Luck index +50 Steelers lucky · −50 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 5, Broncos win 5.

  1. 1 PIT 24 DEN 3
  2. 2 PIT 26 DEN 13
  3. 3 PIT 17 DEN 9
  4. 4 PIT 17 DEN 13
  5. 5 PIT 16 DEN 14
  6. 6 PIT 7 DEN 9
  7. 7 PIT 27 DEN 31
  8. 8 PIT 36 DEN 43
  9. 9 PIT 14 DEN 27
  10. 10 PIT 0 DEN 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 50% of them, Broncos 50%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+9.3%
Steelers by 9–1614.6%
Steelers by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation6.6%
Broncos by 1–823.5%
Broncos by 9–1613.6%
Broncos by 17+9.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 7, without the luck Steelers by 5.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Boswell, 53 yds made · 73% expected
  • W. Lutz, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • W. Lutz, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 10 for 78 yards, Broncos 9 for 124 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:41 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +3% DEN +0.9 pts
Q1 5:37 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (Jonathon Cooper), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% PIT +1.3 pts
Q2 10:46 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.8 pts
Q2 9:32 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +2% DEN +1.2 pts
Q2 8:43 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +16% DEN +5.3 pts
Q2 5:41 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.5 pts
Q2 2:28 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% DEN +0.4 pts
Q2 0:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 27 yards +5% PIT +1.9 pts
Q2 0:14 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Van Jefferson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% DEN +3.3 pts
Q3 12:07 Illegal Formation on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +1.1 pts
Q3 9:02 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 10 yards +2% PIT +1.0 pts
Q3 6:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 37 yards +4% PIT +2.6 pts
Q3 2:21 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Connor Heyward), 10 yards +1% DEN +0.9 pts
Q3 1:26 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +2% PIT +0.9 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (DeShon Elliott), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.8 pts
Q4 14:11 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +1% PIT +0.9 pts
Q4 9:51 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 8 yards, wiping out the play +3% DEN +1.7 pts
Q4 8:24 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.5 pts
Q4 6:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 15 yards +1% PIT +1.7 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:13 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +7% PIT DEN: Punt
2 Q1 2:01 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% PIT PIT: Touchdown
3 Q2 10:34 The Steelers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% PIT PIT: Punt
4 Q2 8:43 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +16% DEN DEN: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 0:14 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Van Jefferson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2717 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +9% DEN DEN: Punt
6 Q3 10:51 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +7% PIT DEN: Punt
7 Q4 12:38 The Broncos converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% DEN DEN: Field goal
8 Q4 0:01 The Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Isaac Seumalo (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 72% · Broncos 28%

Final margin
Steelers by 7
Luck in points
1.1 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 50% · Broncos 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Steelers · Broncos

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