Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024
Browns at Jaguars, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?
The Browns stole one. They beat the Jaguars 18–13, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Browns.
The Browns won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Jaguars were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:50 left): Illegal Shift on the Jaguars (D'Ernest Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Browns.
Final
 Cleveland Browns | 18 |
|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +91 Browns very lucky · −91 Jaguars
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Browns win 1, Jaguars win 9.
- 1 CLE 21 JAX 13
- 2 CLE 24 JAX 26
- 3 CLE 9 JAX 13
- 4 CLE 9 JAX 16
- 5 CLE 10 JAX 20
- 6 CLE 17 JAX 29
- 7 CLE 14 JAX 28
- 8 CLE 10 JAX 27
- 9 CLE 3 JAX 24
- 10 CLE 3 JAX 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Browns won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns offenseEPA per play gained | +0.08 | +0.03 | better by 0.06 |
| Browns defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.03 | +0.01 | better by 0.05 |
| Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained | −0.03 | +0.06 | worse by 0.10 |
| Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.08 | worse by 0.01 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Browns win 9% of them, Jaguars 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Browns by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 2.0% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 17.7% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 23.1% |
| Jaguars by 17+ | 49.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Hopkins, 53 yds made · 64% expected
- C. Little, 22 yds made · 99% expected
- D. Hopkins, 38 yds made · 89% expected
- D. Hopkins, 44 yds made · 80% expected
- C. Little, 43 yds missed · 81% expected
- C. Little, 25 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Browns 13 for 100 yards, Jaguars 6 for 52 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:44 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% JAX +0.9 pts |
| Q1 8:30 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | +2% JAX +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:31 | Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Devin Lloyd), 2 yards | +1% CLE +0.5 pts |
| Q2 14:16 | Illegal Shift on the Browns (Jerry Jeudy), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% JAX +1.7 pts |
| Q2 9:52 | Illegal Formation on the Browns (Dustin Hopkins), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JAX +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:36 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | +1% JAX +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:12 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Montaric Brown), 17 yards | +2% CLE +1.6 pts |
| Q3 12:06 | Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars, 14 yards | +2% CLE +1.7 pts |
| Q3 11:36 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | +3% JAX +1.5 pts |
| Q4 14:24 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Tank Bigsby), 9 yards | +2% CLE +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:10 | Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLE 0.0 pts |
| Q4 12:33 | Defensive Holding on the Browns (Cameron Mitchell), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +5% JAX +1.3 pts |
| Q4 10:06 | Defensive Offside on the Browns (Alex Wright), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JAX +0.4 pts |
| Q4 7:50 | Illegal Shift on the Jaguars (D'Ernest Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +12% CLE +2.1 pts |
| Q4 6:08 | Illegal Shift on the Browns (Elijah Moore), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +11% JAX +1.8 pts |
| Q4 2:36 | Face Mask on the Browns (D'Onta Foreman), 15 yards | +6% JAX +1.4 pts |
| Q4 2:23 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | 0% JAX +1.3 pts |
| Q4 2:12 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% JAX +1.2 pts |
| Q4 0:47 | Illegal Shift on the Jaguars (Gabriel Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CLE +0.3 pts |
Browns penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Jaguars’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:10 | The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +7% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 10:02 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedA. Cooper dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 180 catchable balls before this | +8% JAX | CLE: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 6:28 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +10% JAX | JAX: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 3:03 | The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +8% CLE | CLE: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 7:50 | Illegal Shift on the Jaguars (D'Ernest Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 1602 snaps before, position avg 1 per 860 | +12% CLE | CLE: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 7:39 | The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +7% CLE | JAX: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 6:08 | Illegal Shift on the Browns (Elijah Moore), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 2258 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +11% JAX | JAX: Safety |
| 8 | Q4 2:12 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% JAX | JAX: Safety |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Evan Engram (JAX TE), out · 1.0 pts
- Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.7 pts
- Juan Thornhill (CLE FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Luke Wypler (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Browns 51% · Jaguars 49%
- Final margin
- Browns by 5
- Luck in points
- 5.3 for the Browns
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jaguars by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Browns 9% · Jaguars 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · 
Browns · 
Jaguars
More from Week 2 2024
- Bills at Dolphins BUF 31–10 · replay 67% for the winner
- Colts at Packers GB 16–10 · replay 70% for the winner
- Chargers at Panthers LAC 26–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Raiders at Ravens LV 26–23 · replay 16% for the winner
- Saints at Cowboys NO 44–19 · replay 89% for the winner
- Giants at Commanders WAS 21–18 · replay 79% for the winner
- Jets at Titans NYJ 24–17 · replay 40% for the winner
- Seahawks at Patriots SEA 23–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- 49ers at Vikings MIN 23–17 · replay 47% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Lions TB 20–16 · replay 18% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals ARI 41–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- Bengals at Chiefs KC 26–25 · replay 75% for the winner
- Steelers at Broncos PIT 13–6 · replay 50% for the winner
- Bears at Texans HOU 19–13 · replay 49% for the winner
- Falcons at Eagles ATL 22–21 · replay 35% for the winner