luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · September 12, 2024–September 16

Week 2 2024: who deserved to win

8 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Browns beat the Jaguars 18–13 in a game they win 9% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 2 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 9 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Raiders 26–23 @ Ravens 25% 16% Lucky
Buccaneers 20–16 @ Lions 29% 18% Lucky
Saints 44–19 @ Cowboys 32% 89% Deserved
Falcons 22–21 @ Eagles 34% 35% Lucky
Vikings 23–17 vs 49ers 37% 47% Coin flip
Browns 18–13 @ Jaguars 41% 9% Lucky
Packers 16–10 vs Colts 41% 70% Deserved
Bills 31–10 @ Dolphins 43% 67% Deserved
Cardinals 41–10 vs Rams 47% 79% Deserved

Week 2 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Browns W 18–13 @ Jaguars 9% +91
2 Raiders W 26–23 @ Ravens 16% +84
3 Buccaneers W 20–16 @ Lions 18% +82
4 Falcons W 22–21 @ Eagles 35% +65
5 Jets W 24–17 @ Titans 40% +60
6 Vikings W 23–17 vs 49ers 47% +53
7 Texans W 19–13 vs Bears 49% +51
8 Steelers W 13–6 @ Broncos 50% +50
9 Bills W 31–10 @ Dolphins 67% +33
10 Packers W 16–10 vs Colts 70% +30
11 Chiefs W 26–25 vs Bengals 75% +25
12 Cardinals W 41–10 vs Rams 79% +21
13 Commanders W 21–18 vs Giants 79% +21
14 Seahawks W 23–20 @ Patriots 83% +17
15 Saints W 44–19 @ Cowboys 89% +11
16 Chargers W 26–3 @ Panthers 98% +2
17 Panthers L 3–26 vs Chargers 2% −2
18 Cowboys L 19–44 vs Saints 11% −11
19 Patriots L 20–23 vs Seahawks 17% −17
20 Giants L 18–21 @ Commanders 21% −21
21 Rams L 10–41 @ Cardinals 21% −21
22 Bengals L 25–26 @ Chiefs 25% −25
23 Colts L 10–16 @ Packers 30% −30
24 Dolphins L 10–31 vs Bills 33% −33
25 Broncos L 6–13 vs Steelers 50% −50
26 Bears L 13–19 @ Texans 51% −51
27 49ers L 17–23 @ Vikings 53% −53
28 Titans L 17–24 vs Jets 60% −60
29 Eagles L 21–22 vs Falcons 65% −65
30 Lions L 16–20 vs Buccaneers 82% −82
31 Ravens L 23–26 vs Raiders 84% −84
32 Jaguars L 13–18 vs Browns 91% −91