luckadjusted

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Raiders at Ravens, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Raiders stole one. They beat the Ravens 26–23, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 32 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 75% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 4:03 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Brandon Stephens), 16 yards, worth 17 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 26
Baltimore Ravens 23

September 15, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −9

Luck index +84 Raiders very lucky · −84 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 2, Ravens win 8.

  1. 1 LV 29 BAL 17
  2. 2 LV 23 BAL 20
  3. 3 LV 28 BAL 29
  4. 4 LV 13 BAL 17
  5. 5 LV 17 BAL 24
  6. 6 LV 20 BAL 30
  7. 7 LV 13 BAL 27
  8. 8 LV 8 BAL 26
  9. 9 LV 16 BAL 40
  10. 10 LV 3 BAL 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 16% of them, Ravens 84%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+1.5%
Raiders by 9–164.3%
Raiders by 1–89.9%
Level after regulation1.3%
Ravens by 1–824.1%
Ravens by 9–1621.0%
Ravens by 17+38.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.8 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Raiders by 3, without the luck Ravens by 6.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 48 yds made · 77% expected
  • D. Carlson, 53 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Tucker, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Tucker, 56 yds missed · 63% expected
  • D. Carlson, 51 yds made · 71% expected
  • J. Tucker, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 38 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 3 for 15 yards, Ravens 11 for 109 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 6:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Chris Board), 15 yards +3% LV +1.3 pts
Q2 3:38 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +2% LV +0.9 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 24 yards +11% LV +1.6 pts
Q2 1:33 False Start on the Ravens (Mark Andrews), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.5 pts
Q3 1:50 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Jack Jones), 5 yards +4% BAL +0.9 pts
Q3 1:19 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +3% LV +1.2 pts
Q4 13:04 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Tre'von Moehrig), 6 yards +2% BAL +1.1 pts
Q4 13:04 False Start on the Ravens (Derrick Henry), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LV +0.7 pts
Q4 12:11 Face Mask on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 15 yards, wiping out the play +4% LV +1.4 pts
Q4 7:48 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Janarius Robinson), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.8 pts
Q4 7:46 False Start on the Ravens (Derrick Henry), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.7 pts
Q4 4:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Brandon Stephens), 16 yards +17% LV +2.4 pts
Q4 2:27 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Ravens (Ka'dar Hollman), 5 yards +1% LV +0.5 pts
Q4 0:01 Illegal Forward Pass on the Ravens (Justice Hill), 0 yards 0% LV 0.0 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:21 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% BAL BAL: Field goal
2 Q2 2:30 J. Tucker missed 56-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 52 of 69 from 45+ before +10% LV BAL: Field goal
3 Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 24 yardsJudgment calls · 28 flags in 4758 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +11% LV LV: Field goal
4 Q2 1:44 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +11% BAL LV: Field goal
5 Q3 3:22 The Raiders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +13% LV LV: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:03 The game turned hereDefensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Brandon Stephens), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 3001 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +17% LV LV: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:31 D. Carlson made 38-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +16% LV –
8 Q4 0:01 The Ravens converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedIllegal Forward Pass on the Ravens (Justice Hill), 0 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1795 snaps before, position avg 1 per 860 +9% LV –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Malcolm Koonce (LV DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 15% · Ravens 85%

Final margin
Raiders by 3
Luck in points
9.8 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 16% · Ravens 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Raiders · Ravens

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