luckadjusted

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Giants at Commanders, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Giants 21–18 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 54% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 2:09 left): the Giants were stopped on 4th & 4, worth 31 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

New York Giants 18
Washington Commanders 21

September 15, 2024 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −1.5

Luck index +21 Commanders about even · −21 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 2, Commanders win 8.

  1. 1 NYG 13 WAS 3
  2. 2 NYG 6 WAS 3
  3. 3 NYG 14 WAS 16
  4. 4 NYG 20 WAS 24
  5. 5 NYG 15 WAS 21
  6. 6 NYG 14 WAS 23
  7. 7 NYG 6 WAS 17
  8. 8 NYG 3 WAS 17
  9. 9 NYG 10 WAS 27
  10. 10 NYG 7 WAS 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 21% of them, Commanders 79%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+1.6%
Giants by 9–164.5%
Giants by 1–813.5%
Level after regulation4.9%
Commanders by 1–829.7%
Commanders by 9–1624.9%
Commanders by 17+21.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.9 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 3, without the luck Giants by 5.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Seibert, 45 yds made · 72% expected
  • A. Seibert, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Seibert, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Seibert, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Seibert, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • A. Seibert, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 5 for 20 yards, Commanders 10 for 69 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q1 13:35 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Jason Pinnock), 5 yards +6% WAS +1.9 pts
Q1 5:27 False Start on the Commanders (Ben Sinnott), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +1.2 pts
Q1 5:24 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Commanders, 15 yards +3% NYG +1.4 pts
Q2 3:00 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.8 pts
Q3 12:49 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Commanders, 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% NYG +1.7 pts
Q3 4:01 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.9 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% WAS +1.4 pts
Q4 12:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Noah Igbinoghene), 9 yards +5% NYG +1.0 pts
Q4 11:32 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Giants, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q4 10:14 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 5 yards +9% WAS +1.7 pts
Q4 8:11 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NYG +0.9 pts
Q4 7:21 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% NYG +0.6 pts
Q4 5:51 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Frankie Luvu), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% NYG +0.7 pts
Q4 4:30 Illegal Shift on the Giants (Malik Nabers), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% WAS +0.9 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:12 The Giants converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +15% NYG NYG: Touchdown
2 Q3 11:21 The Commanders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +11% WAS WAS: Field goal
3 Q4 14:27 The Giants converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +15% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:35 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% NYG NYG: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:21 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedFalse Start on the Commanders, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +12% NYG WAS: Field goal
6 Q4 4:37 The Giants converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +19% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 2:09 The game turned hereThe Giants were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedM. Nabers dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 18 catchable balls before this +31% WAS –
8 Q4 0:04 A. Seibert made 30-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +17% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Emmanuel Forbes (WAS CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jamin Davis (WAS LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 87% · Commanders 13%

Final margin
Commanders by 3
Luck in points
8.9 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Giants 21% · Commanders 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Giants · Commanders

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