luckadjusted

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Jets at Titans, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Titans 24–17, but the Titans played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Jets were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:46 left): the Titans were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 15 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 24
Tennessee Titans 17

September 15, 2024 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Jets −3.5

Luck index +60 Jets very lucky · −60 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 4, Titans win 6.

  1. 1 NYJ 27 TEN 10
  2. 2 NYJ 24 TEN 13
  3. 3 NYJ 16 TEN 10
  4. 4 NYJ 20 TEN 18
  5. 5 NYJ 7 TEN 9
  6. 6 NYJ 24 TEN 29
  7. 7 NYJ 3 TEN 12
  8. 8 NYJ 10 TEN 22
  9. 9 NYJ 6 TEN 23
  10. 10 NYJ 17 TEN 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 40% of them, Titans 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+6.0%
Jets by 9–1612.9%
Jets by 1–819.8%
Level after regulation3.1%
Titans by 1–828.1%
Titans by 9–1617.3%
Titans by 17+12.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.5 points to the Titans: the final margin was Jets by 7, without the luck Jets by 12.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 41 yds made · 85% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 33 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 7 for 70 yards, Titans 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:44 Intentional Grounding on the Jets (Aaron Rodgers), 10 yards +3% TEN +1.2 pts
Q1 9:08 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Tony Adams), 5 yards +1% TEN +0.3 pts
Q1 7:03 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Takkarist McKinley), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% TEN +0.1 pts
Q1 1:03 Defensive Delay of Game on the Titans (L'Jarius Sneed), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q2 14:51 Horse Collar Tackle on the Jets (Chuck Clark), 15 yards +4% TEN +1.4 pts
Q2 14:28 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q2 12:28 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Jermaine Johnson II), 15 yards +5% TEN +2.0 pts
Q2 1:03 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Chuck Clark), 15 yards +6% TEN +1.4 pts
Q3 14:12 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q3 13:46 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yards +10% NYJ +2.5 pts
Q3 11:23 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +1% NYJ +1.3 pts
Q3 9:53 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.7 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 8:46 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Titans fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% NYJ TEN: Turnover
2 Q3 13:46 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 4226 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +10% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q3 8:19 Blocked punt by the JetsSpecial teams +8% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
4 Q3 1:54 The Jets converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% NYJ NYJ: Punt
5 Q4 7:11 The Jets converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +12% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:44 The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:29 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% NYJ TEN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:23 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +9% NYJ –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • D.J. Reed (NYJ CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Carter Warren (NYJ T), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 97% · Titans 3%

Final margin
Jets by 7
Luck in points
5.5 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 12.5
Replay with same day's form
Jets 40% · Titans 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Jets · Titans

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