luckadjusted

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Saints at Cowboys, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Cowboys 44–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

An off day for the Cowboys: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 68% favorites.

Final

New Orleans Saints 44
Dallas Cowboys 19

September 15, 2024 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −6.5

Luck index +11 Saints about even · −11 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 9, Cowboys win 1.

  1. 1 NO 49 DAL 17
  2. 2 NO 38 DAL 13
  3. 3 NO 38 DAL 17
  4. 4 NO 34 DAL 17
  5. 5 NO 21 DAL 7
  6. 6 NO 27 DAL 17
  7. 7 NO 27 DAL 20
  8. 8 NO 20 DAL 16
  9. 9 NO 26 DAL 24
  10. 10 NO 13 DAL 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Cowboys

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.

35 points apart for the Cowboys: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Saints offenseEPA per play gained +0.96 +0.08 better by 0.88
Saints defenseEPA per play allowed +0.21 +0.06 worse by 0.16
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained +0.21 +0.12 better by 0.10
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed +0.96 +0.05 worse by 0.91

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 89% of them, Cowboys 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+48.1%
Saints by 9–1622.5%
Saints by 1–817.8%
Level after regulation2.0%
Cowboys by 1–86.6%
Cowboys by 9–162.5%
Cowboys by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.3 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Saints by 25, without the luck Saints by 36.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 52 yds made · 78% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 48 yds made · 84% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • B. Grupe, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 5 for 40 yards, Cowboys 4 for 26 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:30 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 5 yards +3% DAL +0.6 pts
Q1 6:24 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +2% NO +0.9 pts
Q1 4:05 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints, 15 yards +4% DAL +1.4 pts
Q2 2:03 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 5 yards +1% DAL +0.4 pts
Q2 1:38 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cowboys, 5 yards +2% NO +0.4 pts
Q3 11:39 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +1.2 pts
Q3 4:33 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% DAL +3.4 pts
Q3 1:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 6 yards +1% NO +1.9 pts
Q4 7:07 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Foster Moreau), 10 yards 0% DAL +1.7 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 The Saints converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +5% NO NO: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:32 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +5% NO DAL: Field goal
3 Q1 7:08 The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +6% DAL DAL: Field goal
4 Q1 4:05 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% DAL DAL: Field goal
5 Q1 1:33 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q2 12:23 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +4% NO DAL: Field goal
7 Q2 11:42 B. Aubrey made 38-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 4:46 The Saints converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +3% NO NO: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jake Ferguson (DAL TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • A.T. Perry (NO WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Khalen Saunders (NO DT), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 100% · Cowboys 0%

Final margin
Saints by 25
Luck in points
11.3 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 36.3
Replay with same day's form
Saints 89% · Cowboys 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Saints · Cowboys

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