2024 NFL season · final
Every upset of 2024, and which were deserved
84 upsets in 2024, 37 of them deserved. The biggest: the Cowboys beat the Commanders 34–26 (Week 12) as 22% underdogs, and got lucky.
An upset is a win by the underdog of the closing betting line. The line says 103 of these 285 games should have gone to the underdog; 84 did. “Deserved” when the winner takes 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form; “lucky” under 40% (30 of 84).
| # | Game | When | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys 34, Commanders 26 | 2024 Week 12 · Nov 24, 2024 | 22% | 19% | Lucky |
| 2 | Bears 24, Packers 22 | 2024 Week 18 · Jan 5, 2025 | 23% | 3% | Lucky |
| 3 | Raiders 26, Ravens 23 | 2024 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2024 | 25% | 16% | Lucky |
| 4 | Commanders 45, Lions 31 | 2024 Divisional round · Jan 18, 2025 | 26% | 54% | Coin flip |
| 5 | Patriots 16, Bengals 10 | 2024 Week 1 · Sep 8, 2024 | 28% | 47% | Coin flip |
| 6 | Titans 32, Texans 27 | 2024 Week 12 · Nov 24, 2024 | 28% | 50% | Coin flip |
| 7 | Buccaneers 20, Lions 16 | 2024 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2024 | 29% | 18% | Lucky |
| 8 | Commanders 38, Bengals 33 | 2024 Week 3 · Sep 23, 2024 | 29% | 18% | Lucky |
| 9 | Broncos 10, Jets 9 | 2024 Week 4 · Sep 29, 2024 | 29% | 52% | Coin flip |
| 10 | Browns 29, Ravens 24 | 2024 Week 8 · Oct 27, 2024 | 29% | 1% | Lucky |
| 11 | Giants 45, Colts 33 | 2024 Week 17 · Dec 29, 2024 | 29% | 31% | Lucky |
| 12 | Panthers 44, Falcons 38 | 2024 Week 18 · Jan 5, 2025 | 29% | 5% | Lucky |
| 13 | Patriots 25, Jets 22 | 2024 Week 8 · Oct 27, 2024 | 30% | 9% | Lucky |
| 14 | Panthers 23, Saints 22 | 2024 Week 9 · Nov 3, 2024 | 30% | 23% | Lucky |
| 15 | Cardinals 24, 49ers 23 | 2024 Week 5 · Oct 6, 2024 | 30% | 58% | Coin flip |
| 16 | Giants 29, Seahawks 20 | 2024 Week 5 · Oct 6, 2024 | 30% | 19% | Lucky |
| 17 | Panthers 20, Giants 17 | 2024 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2024 | 32% | 15% | Lucky |
| 18 | Saints 44, Cowboys 19 | 2024 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2024 | 32% | 89% | Deserved |
| 19 | Giants 21, Browns 15 | 2024 Week 3 · Sep 22, 2024 | 32% | 80% | Deserved |
| 20 | Patriots 19, Bears 3 | 2024 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2024 | 32% | 77% | Deserved |
| 21 | Broncos 26, Buccaneers 7 | 2024 Week 3 · Sep 22, 2024 | 33% | 55% | Coin flip |
| 22 | Rams 27, 49ers 24 | 2024 Week 3 · Sep 22, 2024 | 33% | 30% | Lucky |
| 23 | Seahawks 20, 49ers 17 | 2024 Week 11 · Nov 17, 2024 | 33% | 35% | Lucky |
| 24 | Falcons 22, Eagles 21 | 2024 Week 2 · Sep 16, 2024 | 34% | 35% | Lucky |
| 25 | Panthers 36, Raiders 22 | 2024 Week 3 · Sep 22, 2024 | 34% | 49% | Coin flip |
| 26 | Panthers 36, Cardinals 30 | 2024 Week 16 · Dec 22, 2024 | 34% | 26% | Lucky |
| 27 | Vikings 23, 49ers 17 | 2024 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2024 | 37% | 47% | Coin flip |
| 28 | Cowboys 26, Buccaneers 24 | 2024 Week 16 · Dec 22, 2024 | 37% | 38% | Lucky |
| 29 | Steelers 18, Falcons 10 | 2024 Week 1 · Sep 8, 2024 | 38% | 46% | Coin flip |
| 30 | Cardinals 28, Dolphins 27 | 2024 Week 8 · Oct 27, 2024 | 38% | 93% | Deserved |
| 31 | Colts 28, Jets 27 | 2024 Week 11 · Nov 17, 2024 | 38% | 54% | Coin flip |
| 32 | Commanders 36, Eagles 33 | 2024 Week 16 · Dec 22, 2024 | 38% | 58% | Coin flip |
| 33 | Saints 20, Falcons 17 | 2024 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2024 | 40% | 32% | Lucky |
| 34 | Browns 24, Steelers 19 | 2024 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2024 | 40% | 28% | Lucky |
| 35 | Rams 44, Bills 42 | 2024 Week 14 · Dec 8, 2024 | 40% | 40% | Lucky |
| 36 | Commanders 42, Cardinals 14 | 2024 Week 4 · Sep 29, 2024 | 40% | 94% | Deserved |
| 37 | Browns 18, Jaguars 13 | 2024 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2024 | 41% | 9% | Lucky |
| 38 | Packers 16, Colts 10 | 2024 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2024 | 41% | 70% | Deserved |
| 39 | Packers 30, Titans 14 | 2024 Week 3 · Sep 22, 2024 | 41% | 86% | Deserved |
| 40 | Steelers 37, Jets 15 | 2024 Week 7 · Oct 20, 2024 | 41% | 53% | Coin flip |
| 41 | Seahawks 34, Falcons 14 | 2024 Week 7 · Oct 20, 2024 | 41% | 38% | Lucky |
| 42 | Rams 30, Vikings 20 | 2024 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2024 | 41% | 68% | Deserved |
| 43 | Steelers 18, Ravens 16 | 2024 Week 11 · Nov 17, 2024 | 41% | 13% | Lucky |
| 44 | Eagles 24, Ravens 19 | 2024 Week 13 · Dec 1, 2024 | 41% | 37% | Lucky |
| 45 | Steelers 44, Bengals 38 | 2024 Week 13 · Dec 1, 2024 | 41% | 68% | Deserved |
| 46 | Jaguars 10, Titans 6 | 2024 Week 14 · Dec 8, 2024 | 41% | 72% | Deserved |
| 47 | Seahawks 30, Cardinals 18 | 2024 Week 14 · Dec 8, 2024 | 41% | 60% | Deserved |
| 48 | Rams 12, 49ers 6 | 2024 Week 15 · Dec 12, 2024 | 41% | 60% | Coin flip |
| 49 | Buccaneers 40, Chargers 17 | 2024 Week 15 · Dec 15, 2024 | 41% | 94% | Deserved |
| 50 | Patriots 23, Bills 16 | 2024 Week 18 · Jan 5, 2025 | 41% | 26% | Lucky |
| 51 | Texans 32, Chargers 12 | 2024 Wild Card · Jan 11, 2025 | 41% | 46% | Coin flip |
| 52 | Commanders 23, Buccaneers 20 | 2024 Wild Card · Jan 12, 2025 | 41% | 47% | Coin flip |
| 53 | Cowboys 33, Browns 17 | 2024 Week 1 · Sep 8, 2024 | 43% | 96% | Deserved |
| 54 | Bills 31, Dolphins 10 | 2024 Week 2 · Sep 12, 2024 | 43% | 67% | Deserved |
| 55 | Eagles 15, Saints 12 | 2024 Week 3 · Sep 22, 2024 | 43% | 90% | Deserved |
| 56 | Raiders 20, Browns 16 | 2024 Week 4 · Sep 29, 2024 | 43% | 65% | Deserved |
| 57 | Vikings 31, Packers 29 | 2024 Week 4 · Sep 29, 2024 | 43% | 72% | Deserved |
| 58 | Colts 27, Steelers 24 | 2024 Week 4 · Sep 29, 2024 | 43% | 66% | Deserved |
| 59 | Titans 31, Dolphins 12 | 2024 Week 4 · Sep 30, 2024 | 43% | 48% | Coin flip |
| 60 | Cowboys 20, Steelers 17 | 2024 Week 5 · Oct 6, 2024 | 43% | 84% | Deserved |
| 61 | Colts 20, Titans 17 | 2024 Week 6 · Oct 13, 2024 | 43% | 95% | Deserved |
| 62 | Chiefs 28, 49ers 18 | 2024 Week 7 · Oct 20, 2024 | 43% | 62% | Deserved |
| 63 | Eagles 37, Bengals 17 | 2024 Week 8 · Oct 27, 2024 | 43% | 89% | Deserved |
| 64 | Dolphins 23, Rams 15 | 2024 Week 10 · Nov 11, 2024 | 43% | 28% | Lucky |
| 65 | Bills 48, Lions 42 | 2024 Week 15 · Dec 15, 2024 | 43% | 90% | Deserved |
| 66 | Cowboys 30, Panthers 14 | 2024 Week 15 · Dec 15, 2024 | 43% | 81% | Deserved |
| 67 | Texans 23, Titans 14 | 2024 Week 18 · Jan 5, 2025 | 43% | 76% | Deserved |
| 68 | Rams 27, Vikings 9 | 2024 Wild Card · Jan 13, 2025 | 43% | 66% | Deserved |
| 69 | Vikings 34, Texans 7 | 2024 Week 3 · Sep 22, 2024 | 44% | 84% | Deserved |
| 70 | Cardinals 31, Jets 6 | 2024 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2024 | 44% | 90% | Deserved |
| 71 | Dolphins 29, 49ers 17 | 2024 Week 16 · Dec 22, 2024 | 44% | 27% | Lucky |
| 72 | Bears 35, Jaguars 16 | 2024 Week 6 · Oct 13, 2024 | 46% | 93% | Deserved |
| 73 | Steelers 28, Commanders 27 | 2024 Week 10 · Nov 10, 2024 | 46% | 14% | Lucky |
| 74 | Bills 27, Ravens 25 | 2024 Divisional round · Jan 19, 2025 | 46% | 54% | Coin flip |
| 75 | Eagles 40, Chiefs 22 | 2024 Super Bowl · Feb 9, 2025 | 46% | 84% | Deserved |
| 76 | Cardinals 41, Rams 10 | 2024 Week 2 · Sep 15, 2024 | 47% | 79% | Deserved |
| 77 | Buccaneers 33, Eagles 16 | 2024 Week 4 · Sep 29, 2024 | 47% | 85% | Deserved |
| 78 | Cardinals 17, Chargers 15 | 2024 Week 7 · Oct 21, 2024 | 47% | 84% | Deserved |
| 79 | Saints 35, Browns 14 | 2024 Week 11 · Nov 17, 2024 | 47% | 70% | Deserved |
| 80 | Seahawks 16, Cardinals 6 | 2024 Week 12 · Nov 24, 2024 | 47% | 39% | Lucky |
| 81 | Vikings 27, Packers 25 | 2024 Week 17 · Dec 29, 2024 | 47% | 81% | Deserved |
| 82 | Jaguars 20, Titans 13 | 2024 Week 17 · Dec 29, 2024 | 47% | 61% | Deserved |
| 83 | Lions 31, Vikings 29 | 2024 Week 7 · Oct 20, 2024 | 47% | 32% | Lucky |
| 84 | Seahawks 26, Jets 21 | 2024 Week 13 · Dec 1, 2024 | 47% | 77% | Deserved |
Upsets week by week
| Week | Upsets | Deserved | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| Week 2 | 9 | 4 | 16 |
| Week 3 | 8 | 4 | 16 |
| Week 4 | 7 | 5 | 16 |
| Week 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| Week 6 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| Week 7 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| Week 8 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| Week 9 | 1 | 0 | 15 |
| Week 10 | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| Week 11 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| Week 12 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| Week 13 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| Week 14 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| Week 15 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| Week 16 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| Week 17 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| Week 18 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| Wild Card | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| Divisional round | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Conference championships | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Super Bowl | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019
The biggest upsets since 2019 · 2024 luck rankings · Do unlucky teams cover the spread?