Week 12 2024 · November 24, 2024
Cardinals at Seahawks, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 16–6, but the Cardinals played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:25 left): the Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 45 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Final
 Arizona Cardinals | 6 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +61 Seahawks very lucky · −61 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cardinals win 6, Seahawks win 4.
- 1 ARI 31 SEA 7
- 2 ARI 24 SEA 9
- 3 ARI 27 SEA 16
- 4 ARI 34 SEA 26
- 5 ARI 15 SEA 10
- 6 ARI 20 SEA 17
- 7 ARI 20 SEA 22
- 8 ARI 24 SEA 31
- 9 ARI 13 SEA 24
- 10 ARI 16 SEA 36
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cardinals win 61% of them, Seahawks 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cardinals by 17+ | 14.5% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 17.6% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 27.0% |
| Level after regulation | 2.9% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 19.3% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 12.7% |
| Seahawks by 17+ | 6.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Ryland, 35 yds made · 92% expected
- C. Ryland, 22 yds made · 98% expected
- J. Myers, 50 yds made · 73% expected
- C. Ryland, 47 yds missed · 73% expected
- Extra point missed · 70% expected
Penalties: Cardinals 5 for 60 yards, Seahawks 5 for 51 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:15 | False Start on the Seahawks (Jaxon Smith-Njigba), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARI +0.8 pts |
| Q1 0:52 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards | +3% SEA +1.1 pts |
| Q2 14:05 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Pharaoh Brown), 6 yards, wiping out the play | +7% ARI +1.3 pts |
| Q2 9:57 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +15% SEA +3.9 pts |
| Q3 13:34 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Starling Thomas), 20 yards | +4% SEA +1.3 pts |
| Q3 11:37 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks (Pharaoh Brown), 15 yards | +2% ARI +0.9 pts |
| Q3 10:51 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Tip Reiman), 10 yards | +2% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 7:25 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 15 yards | +4% ARI +1.2 pts |
| Q4 8:32 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jake Bobo), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% ARI +1.4 pts |
| Q4 1:30 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 10 yards | +2% SEA +0.7 pts |
Cardinals penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Seahawks’ chance of winning
As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:47 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% SEA | SEA: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 14:05 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Pharaoh Brown), 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 21 flags in 2564 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 | +7% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 9:57 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +15% SEA | SEA: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 6:32 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% ARI | SEA: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 1:17 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +8% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 7:25 | The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedThe Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1582 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215Return touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams | +45% SEA | ARI: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 15:00 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +8% ARI | SEA: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 11:28 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +11% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Noah Fant (SEA TE), out · 0.6 pts
- Stone Forsythe (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jalen Thompson (ARI FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Matt Prater (ARI K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cardinals 60% · Seahawks 40%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 10
- Luck in points
- 10.5 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cardinals by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Cardinals 61% · Seahawks 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · 
Cardinals · 
Seahawks
More from Week 12 2024
- Steelers at Browns CLE 24–19 · replay 28% for the winner
- Cowboys at Commanders DAL 34–26 · replay 19% for the winner
- Lions at Colts DET 24–6 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chiefs at Panthers KC 30–27 · replay 92% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 30–27 · replay 79% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins MIA 34–15 · replay 90% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Giants TB 30–7 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 32–27 · replay 50% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders DEN 29–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- 49ers at Packers GB 38–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Eagles at Rams PHI 37–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- Ravens at Chargers BAL 30–23 · replay 92% for the winner