luckadjusted

Week 12 2024 · November 24, 2024

Eagles at Rams, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Rams 37–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:51 left): the Eagles converted 3rd & 4, worth 11 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 37
Los Angeles Rams 20

November 24, 2024 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −3

Luck index +5 Eagles about even · −5 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 9, Rams win 1.

  1. 1 PHI 44 LA 10
  2. 2 PHI 49 LA 23
  3. 3 PHI 27 LA 6
  4. 4 PHI 49 LA 31
  5. 5 PHI 24 LA 9
  6. 6 PHI 26 LA 14
  7. 7 PHI 30 LA 21
  8. 8 PHI 35 LA 29
  9. 9 PHI 30 LA 28
  10. 10 PHI 19 LA 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 95% of them, Rams 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+61.1%
Eagles by 9–1623.2%
Eagles by 1–810.1%
Level after regulation0.6%
Rams by 1–83.9%
Rams by 9–161.0%
Rams by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 points to the Rams: the final margin was Eagles by 17, without the luck Eagles by 19.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Elliott, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Karty, 47 yds missed · 80% expected
  • J. Elliott, 26 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 4 for 52 yards, Rams 4 for 38 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 6 yards +4% LA +1.4 pts
Q2 8:02 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards +3% LA +1.1 pts
Q2 0:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Quentin Lake), 12 yards +1% PHI +0.4 pts
Q3 11:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Isaiah Rodgers), 31 yards +10% LA +5.6 pts
Q3 2:26 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +4% PHI +1.3 pts
Q4 6:23 Offensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Puka Nacua), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% PHI +1.7 pts
Q4 4:19 Defensive Offside on the Rams (Tyler Davis), 6 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +2.1 pts
Q4 1:07 Illegal Bat on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 10 yards 0% LA +0.9 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:38 The Rams fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PHI LA: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:53 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% PHI LA: Punt
3 Q2 8:51 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +11% PHI PHI: Field goal
4 Q2 4:56 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% PHI LA: Punt
5 Q2 0:11 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedA. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 273 catchable balls before this +6% LA PHI: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 11:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Isaiah Rodgers), 31 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1748 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +10% LA LA: Touchdown
7 Q3 7:05 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q3 4:01 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +10% LA LA: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Troy Reeder (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • DeVonta Smith (PHI WR), out · 1.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 100% · Rams 0%

Final margin
Eagles by 17
Luck in points
2.1 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 19.1
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 95% · Rams 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · Eagles · Rams

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