Week 12 2024 · November 24, 2024
Vikings at Bears, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the Bears 30–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Bears.
Before kickoff the Vikings were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): C. Santos made 48-yard field goal, worth 19 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final (OT)
 Minnesota Vikings | 30 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Vikings about even · −21 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 8, Bears win 2.
- 1 MIN 47 CHI 16
- 2 MIN 41 CHI 19
- 3 MIN 48 CHI 30
- 4 MIN 35 CHI 20
- 5 MIN 25 CHI 14
- 6 MIN 41 CHI 33
- 7 MIN 27 CHI 22
- 8 MIN 19 CHI 17
- 9 MIN 28 CHI 31
- 10 MIN 13 CHI 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 79% of them, Bears 21%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 34.5% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 24.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 11.2% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 6.3% |
| Bears by 17+ | 3.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Santos, 48 yds blocked · 77% expected
- C. Santos, 49 yds made · 75% expected
- J. Romo, 40 yds made · 88% expected
- J. Romo, 26 yds made · 98% expected
- C. Santos, 48 yds made · 77% expected
- J. Romo, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Vikings 5 for 45 yards, Bears 7 for 80 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Bears (D'Andre Swift), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% MIN +1.6 pts |
| Q1 5:47 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings (C.J. Ham), 10 yards | +3% CHI +1.3 pts |
| Q1 5:21 | Offensive Holding on the Bears (Noah Sewell), 10 yards | +3% MIN +1.0 pts |
| Q1 0:12 | Defensive Offside on the Bears (Darrell Taylor), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 7:22 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 35 yards | +9% MIN +3.0 pts |
| Q2 0:48 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MIN +0.4 pts |
| Q3 7:13 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 10 yards | +4% MIN +1.9 pts |
| Q4 13:59 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards | +1% CHI +1.2 pts |
| Q4 3:45 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Brandon Powell), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% CHI +6.7 pts |
| QOT 8:22 | Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% MIN +0.7 pts |
| QOT 5:43 | False Start on the Vikings (Johnny Mundt), 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% CHI +0.6 pts |
| QOT 5:03 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +18% CHI +1.5 pts |
Vikings penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 13:49 | The Bears converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +9% CHI | CHI: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q2 11:49 | The Bears converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +10% CHI | CHI: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q2 0:03 | C. Santos made 49-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 35 of 49 from 45+ before | +12% CHI | CHI: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q3 8:10 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedC. Kmet dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 165 catchable balls before this | +11% MIN | CHI: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 0:22 | The Bears’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOnside kick recovered by the BearsSpecial teams | +15% CHI | CHI: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 0:03 | C. Santos made 48-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 36 of 50 from 45+ before | +19% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 7 | QOT 6:23 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +16% MIN | MIN: Field goal |
| 8 | QOT 5:03 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +18% CHI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jaquan Brisker (CHI SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Andrew Billings (CHI DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Elijah Hicks (CHI FS), out · 0.2 pts
- Ryan Bates (CHI C), out · 0.2 pts
- Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Will Reichard (MIN K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Josh Oliver (MIN TE), out · 0.2 pts
- Andrew DePaola (MIN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 72% · Bears 28%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 3
- Luck in points
- 3.8 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vikings by 6.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 79% · Bears 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · 
Vikings · 
Bears
More from Week 12 2024
- Steelers at Browns CLE 24–19 · replay 28% for the winner
- Cowboys at Commanders DAL 34–26 · replay 19% for the winner
- Lions at Colts DET 24–6 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chiefs at Panthers KC 30–27 · replay 92% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins MIA 34–15 · replay 90% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Giants TB 30–7 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 32–27 · replay 50% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders DEN 29–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 16–6 · replay 39% for the winner
- 49ers at Packers GB 38–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Eagles at Rams PHI 37–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- Ravens at Chargers BAL 30–23 · replay 92% for the winner