luckadjusted

Week 12 2024 · November 24, 2024

Lions at Colts, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Colts 24–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:57 left): the Lions were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 11 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Detroit Lions 24
Indianapolis Colts 6

November 24, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Lions −7

Luck index +4 Lions about even · −4 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 10, Colts win 0.

  1. 1 DET 42 IND 10
  2. 2 DET 27 IND 0
  3. 3 DET 26 IND 3
  4. 4 DET 40 IND 20
  5. 5 DET 24 IND 6
  6. 6 DET 29 IND 13
  7. 7 DET 26 IND 13
  8. 8 DET 27 IND 17
  9. 9 DET 20 IND 13
  10. 10 DET 20 IND 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 96% of them, Colts 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+64.0%
Lions by 9–1618.8%
Lions by 1–812.7%
Level after regulation0.5%
Colts by 1–83.1%
Colts by 9–160.8%
Colts by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +21.3 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 18, without the luck Colts by 3.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Bates, 56 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 5 for 45 yards, Colts 10 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:07 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards +3% DET +0.9 pts
Q1 3:17 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Andrew Ogletree), 11 yards, wiping out the play +8% DET +4.1 pts
Q2 12:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 2 yards +2% DET +0.5 pts
Q2 3:34 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% DET +2.6 pts
Q2 0:20 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND 0.0 pts
Q3 9:53 Illegal Use of Hands on the Colts, 8 yards, wiping out the play +4% DET +1.9 pts
Q3 9:05 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Alec Pierce), 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% DET +5.2 pts
Q3 2:24 Taunting on the Lions (Jahmyr Gibbs), 15 yards +2% IND +1.4 pts
Q3 0:38 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% DET +2.5 pts
Q4 13:21 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.8 pts
Q4 10:24 Intentional Grounding on the Colts (Anthony Richardson), 9 yards +1% DET +0.8 pts
Q4 10:18 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Colts (Kylen Granson), 5 yards 0% DET +0.6 pts
Q4 10:08 False Start on the Lions (Jahmyr Gibbs), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.7 pts
Q4 5:59 Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact on the Lions (Brian Branch), 15 yards 0% IND +1.0 pts
Q4 3:55 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.7 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:32 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +9% IND DET: Punt
2 Q1 3:55 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% IND IND: Punt
3 Q1 3:17 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Andrew Ogletree), 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 841 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +8% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q2 14:18 The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q2 8:26 A. Ogletree dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 18 catchable balls before this +5% DET IND: Field goal
6 Q2 3:34 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% DET DET: Punt
7 Q3 9:57 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +11% IND DET: Touchdown
8 Q3 9:05 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Alec Pierce), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2382 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +11% DET DET: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Bernhard Raimann (IND T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Will Fries (IND G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Aidan Hutchinson (DET DE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Terrion Arnold (DET CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Alex Anzalone (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Al-Quadin Muhammad (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 34% · Colts 66%

Final margin
Lions by 18
Luck in points
21.3 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
Lions 96% · Colts 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · Lions · Colts

More from Week 12 2024